10/24/2017

Today was an inconclusive day. While some would interpret mildly positive index action as bullish, today VIX closed above a monthly pivot for the second time since 8/21. Yes we know 8/21 was a low; but before that low VIX closed above the AugP on 8/8. That said, VIX is running into its D200MA and that will be the level to watch for Wednesday.

In case it isn't clear, here is my view:

I thought we would see a trading turn on INDU YR2 (wrong) or SPX YR2 (so far correct).
This trading turn probably isn't the final high for the bull market.
It still could be important enough to take action to lock in gains from August & end of September longs.
First suggestion index hedge on SPY / ES Q4R1 on 10/6 was small loss or scratch.
Next suggestions of safe haven longs on GLD from 10/9 was small gain or scratch.
More recent suggestion of QQQ short on day of highs is in the money.
Additionally, XIV short via UXVY triggered Monday is also in the money, and enough to have breakeven stop from here.
Weekend Total market view suggested safe haven capitulation ie TLT and GLD breakdown seemed more likely the next move; so far in process.
The main question here is whether we see a decent trading turn on SPX YR2 (since INDU YR2 rallied above); so far, TBD - maybe. As the market happened to trade during session exactly on YR2 level for SPX, a partial hedge could be appropriate (especially if not already in QQQ short or UVXY) and now can be held with no cost or extremely small cost depending on your stop tolerance.

SPY, XIV, VIX below.