On days like these I like to asses the positive and negatives and then make a decision regarding positioning.
Keep in mind that I have been sounding caution alarm a bit too early over the past two weeks; safe haven longs ie GLD from 10/9 had chance for some minor gain that quickly evaporated; SPY hedges against Q4R1 were stopped out for small loss; but taking hedging positions on QQQ or IWM are working so far. (QQQ tweeted on day of the high from @pivotalmomentum.)
The USA mains:
SPX YR2 crystal clear rejection with no debate - might this be as important a turn as the 3/1 high, the 5/9 high, or 5/25-31 lows, or the 6/29 or 7/6 lows? Yes, it might!
INDU high on OctR2; still above Q4R2, YR2.
NDX Q4R1 rejection, still holding 2HR1
RUT YR1 near tag and rejection
NYA slight break of Q4R1; VTI between levels
Not the worst but given YR2 rejection on SPX, YR1 rejection on RUT, and Q4 rejection on NDX, bears winning. This will be even more so if current leader Dow breaks a major level, which hasn't happened yet.
VIX slightly above OctP; XIV broke 2HR1 (the level i said could trigger a trade in recent Total market view).
We won't have real trouble until VIX is more above at least one pivot and 'panic' only counts above the 2HP at 12.28. Also, the markets may come back to test highs. Based on above, i think any move up is limited to a high test, and we may see further downside soon enough.
SPY, SPX and XIV below.