If there was ever a day that illustrates the importance of waiting for the close to take a signal, that was today. On the open it looked nasty with a break of the FebP and WPs across the board, but by the end of the day SPY and DIA managed to hold their FebPs, and VTI reclaimed what had broken yesterday.

It also shows to know where the big cash index levels are, as there was massive buying from SPX YS1 1895 (LOD 1891) as oil held its 1HS1 on the current contract as well (see this post for the level).

Now what? SPY / ES / SPX has been chopping without a clear move on the FebP. Both the cash index and futures rallied to but not through the level on 2/17, then had two days of mild pause that didn't look like rejection 2/18-19, one day that jumped above and appeared to buy on 2/22 that turned into fake-out; then a drop under the level that was met with buying today. Where has market gone in that time? About nowhere. Although safe haven trades TLT and GLD are higher than 2/17 and have been easier to simply add back on the pullback and hold.

I don't know what happens with stock indexes tomorrow but if we see SPY maintain above its FebP, ES above 1925 and SPX above 1930 (cash index not yet) then that will be bullish. If you are an active trader and loosely following positioning, then check this post.

As of yesterday I went mostly back to bear playbook from the bounce idea, but the market may force the bounce plan yet again. If so then way to do it is reduce on full safe haven positions if they show rejections from major resistance and put into the USA leaders DIA and SPY that are above the FebPs (obviously, only if that is the case). Or accept the chop and cut any shorts from 2/23.