I don't claim perfection here. That would have been taking a massive position of out of the money puts on 12/29/2015! Or going flat or short USA stocks on 11/3/2015 and shifting back into TLT the next week! Good luck finding that consistently. But I've done a pretty good job of staying on the right side of the market:
Alerting to key low chance from 9/29 and bullish USA stocks from early October;
While staying bearish emerging market stocks;
And getting the key USA pullback low in November.
At the end of 2015, I was probably a bit too focused on where the next pivots would be and didn't pay as much attention to the last 2 days trading as I should; note for next time. But several successes:
Recognizing real trouble 1/4-7, targeting SPY 186 from 1/6 and shifting into TLT, and adding;
Getting the GLD move, and adding;
Two turn alerts near the lows 1/20-22 and 2/11-12, including oil, both good for USA and/or emerging index short covers;
Chance for some gain on recent INDU/DIA, RSX, EWZ and EEM recommendations, playing the bounce;
and lastly, BTCUSD has faded but still a gain.
But yesterday was not one of those times, sorry. If you added anything yesterday it looks like a mistake. Markets had held FebS1s and this was the second time above the pivot on SPY, DIA and VTI; usually the second time move above definitive. Not this time. Looks like some of the filter ideas I typed up would have helped here too. Keep in mind though, that the primary buys were DIA on 2/12 then a combination of the emerging markets on 2/16. Yesterday would have been the third long addition (my choice SPY to keep separate from the DIA position) with quick out today.
Now what?
SPY literally closed on the FebP to the penny, but ES and SPX are back under. DIA & YM still barely above, INDU fractionally under. VIX and VXD don't look good (more on this soon). VTI and ACWI, the institutional indexes, back under FebPs, bearish. Basically market hanging by a thread on what's left of the SPY FebP and the DIA / YM / DIA levels.
Also, CLJ6 dropped under its weekly pivot (WP) today, so despite the bounce it never reclaimed its FebP and now back under WP. Staying under the WP means path of least resistance is DOWN.
My take - back to bear (opposed to bounce) playbook but watch the levels listed to confirm. I think out with some small gains on the emerging market trades, and ready to lock in INDU / DIA if any lower tomorrow. TLT should be full position with two chances to buy pullbacks. GLD judgment call if out a portion from Monday to add back at slightly higher levels. Then could increase shorts via QQQ, XLF and FXI. FXI actually did tag its FebP, but compared to all the other emerging indexes that did it is relatively weaker. The USA shorts would especially confirm if leader DIA / YM / INDU looks like rejection of the FebP tomorrow.
If we get a break from here, probably related to oil, I think markets could get very messy very quickly. DeMark is in the news for saying as much today, but I've already said as much here and here.