Official trouble alert today, with SPY clear rejection from Q4P and VIX confirming risk above its Q4P.

About 2 weeks ago I wrote up a post called "Looks like resistance" because it was one of the few times we had seen SPY being pushed down from a quarterly, half-year or yearly pivot this year. I thought technically that Friday 10/14 was the 2nd most threatening day of the year when both pivots and moving averages were considered (after 1/6). Just because the market has chopped sideways since then doesn't diminish the threat when the technical configurations that produced this alert are repeated, as they were today.

If you doubt the potential risk of a clear quarterly pivot rejection in a market that has already had a good run up, try sitting on longs in GLD or TLT from 10/3/2016+, or SPY from 1/6/2016+, or USO from 7/2/2015+, etc.

Perhaps we see a recovery tomorrow but when VIX sounds alarm, it usually pays to listen.

ps: The list of assets that I track above all pivots is diminishing. Still there:

QQQ
SOXX/SMH, XLF
XIV
EWZ

Falling off the list today: EEM
Falling off the list this week: IYF (another financial ETF), FXI, PIN, RSX

Tech needs to hold or we'll probably see several Q4S1s for a decent low.

SPY & VIX below.