10/26/2016

More points for the bears today, but still markets remain in mixed condition as has been the case for most of September and October. Meaning, many indexes not above all pivots, but a few holding; for stock indexes that have been below pivots, only moves to monthly support (ie not quarterly, yet). 

+s
USA main index leader Tech (QQQ etc) above all pivots
SOXX / SMH (2016 USA sector leader) above all pivots
XLF and some (not all) other financial ETFs above all pivots
VIX below all pivots with Q4P resistance, XIV above all pivots
EWZ, EEM both global leaders above all pivots

-s
SPY Q4P rejection, 2nd move below Q4P
DIA remains under Q4P since 10/11
IWM Q4P break, also 2nd move below Q4P
VTI Q4P break and 2nd move below, NYA continues below Q4P with clear resistance on 10/24

So my view is that this tug of war, though about even, is more tilted to the bears with negatives on 4 of 5 USA main indexes. Also consider that IWM and NYA/VTI together with bearish conclusions means market breadth is weak. But until a main index leader cracks and VIX/XIV confirms it often pays to give the trend the benefit of the doubt (Brexit, Ebola, the list goes on). But if your view is more bearish, then simple, trim some gains on leaders or slap on some more SPY short hedges. 

SPY, VIX, IWM below.