This phrase is like saying you believe in UFOs or something. Everyone knows timing the market is impossible. Right?
6/26/2017 Daily comment added: "In addition, special 1 day timing cycle indicates higher than usual odds of a market smash on Tuesday. What qualifies as smash? Let's say QQQ -1%."
Nailed that, QQQ -1.8%. Quants, please tell me, what were the statistics on that happening?
This is just smart part of a Timing project I have been pursuing for quite a while, and maintain in skeletal fashion like this at the end of each Total market view.
"TIMING (Proprietary work in progress model)
June dates (published in 5/29 Total market view)
6/9
6/15-16
6/21-26
In addition, a larger timing cycle points to momentum slowing in risk assets from 6/5 into July."
So there you have it.
6/9 price high in SPY, QQQ and IWM - on a turn date mentioned weeks before
6/16 pullback low in SPY and QQQ - ditto
6/18/2017 Total market view added this for the 6/21-26 window: "prefer down for stocks especially the hot trades of 2017." Check.
The larger cycle turned out the most important. From 6/5 on, all the momentum trades have been whacked:
QQQ - only 1 day fractionally higher than 6/2 on 6/8, then slammed for the worst drop in months
SMH - a bit higher into 6/8, then slammed
Bitcoin - top 6/11 just a bit higher than 6/6 high, then -30% drop in 4 days
Ether - did go higher into 6/12, but flashiest crash ever on 6/21
So, market timer for service... all I can say is this part of my work went into the 110% annual gain in 2013 at the fund. But thus far, I haven't found anyone else interested. Too bad - it works, no one else is doing it (uncorrelated!), it is mindblowing, and fun.