I was totally on top of the potential for re-balancing / mean reversion near the end of June from early in the month. Specific trades triggered with oil long and semi-conductor short, both from 6/26.
6/3/2017 Total market view: "Another thought - at some point in June we may see professional re-balancing move. This would imply tech slowdown and and possible bid in energy, the weakest S&P sector this year."
6/11/2017 Total market view: "Given the disparity between tech gains and energy losses, I think there could be more to recent moves given likely institutional re-balancing near the end of the second quarter."
6/18/2017 Total market view: "As we head into the last 2 weeks of the 2nd quarter / 1st half, it is still possible to have re-balancing out of the hottest trade and money into sectors like energy. This would imply risk to tech, semi-conductors, Europe (which I don't track too much here) and global indexes."
6/24/2017 Oil blog post: "While CL1 contract is not a screaming buy, USO looks like a decent speculative buy setup based on: Monthly chart Bollinger band and RSI divergence and just as important 2017 YS1 hold. I don't know if this will get far but if not short (as one could be on USO from 4/20 on) then this is the kind of place to try a rare counter-trend move. Note: I mention these only rarely because the easier money is usually with the trend."
6/26/2017 Daily comment: "Portfolio is up to 90% long with a speculative buy on USO near the YS1. This is totally counter-trend move - ie below all pivots - but in certain very rare circumstances these setups offer good risk-reward. I haven't done too many of these but mentioned in an oil post on the blog over the weekend. Risk is limited to daily close below the YS1."
6/26/2017 Daily comment: "I will go out on a limb and issue speculative short on SMH based on rejections of 1HR3, Q2R2, and D20MA failure."
USO for the week from 6/26 open, nearly +7% gain.
SMH short from 6/26 close, +4%.
My record on speculative trades on this site is 5 for 5:
Dow and oil longs 2/12/16
TLT short 7/8/16
USO long and SMH short 6/26/17
That's it.