Sum
All USA mains are above all pivots. The preferred scenario of bounce from SPX and RUT MPs played out. In addition, NDX recovered its MP which was not the case last week.
So far most tests of resistance areas have meant pause or clear without serious selling.
SPX cleared HR1 2883, and seems to be pointing to YR2 2987.
DJI no selling from HR1 26143, which if maintains then next level up YR1 26504.
However, NDX is below YR2 for the 2nd week in row. RUT is holding above YR2 but the hold of MP has been weaker and seems to be having trouble to lift.
Bottom line - playing pivot holds in up-trending environment has paid several times especially in the 2nd half this year. But heading into the last 10 days of the quarter, I’m always on the watch for institutional re-balancing. If this were to occur we would see NDX and RUT MP breaks. Given NDX YR2 and RUT trouble to lift from MP I think this will be likely unless the market delivers a strong move up in the current week. So if NDX clears YR2 then that will help reduce the bearish threat.
SPX SPY ES
SPX W: Looks very bullish with launch above HR1. Looks like it will try for YR2 near 3000 this year.
SPY D: Near term target QR2 still in play through the end of the month.
ES D: As long as daily moving averages sloping upwards, a good idea to play longs on pivot tests
SPY 2H: SPY touched MP in July and then Sept, so it can be a long stretch between tests in a good trending move.
SPX sum: Move above HR1 2883 bullish and points to YR2 2987. Near term tag of QR2 2925 could happen next week.
NDX QQQ
NDX: YR2 test and 2nd week under the level. Door is open for selling, but a little higher would look good.
QQQ: YR2 in red arrow, and green arrows show recent pivot holds (mostly MPs, with YR1 holding as support early in July).
QQQ 2H: Showing earlier monthly pivot holds (green arrows), recent break (red arrow) and then hold. It would not take much for another break. Watching.
NDX sum: 2nd weekly bar under YR2. This could be part of a normal pause before blasting higher, or there could be more a dip coming up. We haven’t seen serious selling since Q1 but with quarterly RSI on track to be 90+ I’m watching this carefully.
DJI DIA
DJI W: So far no selling from HR1 test, but seems to be struggling a bit. If higher then YR1 above.
DIA D: Showing target areas on red (HR1 then YR1) and pivot holds in green arrows.
DJI sum: If DJI can stay above HR1 26143 then YR1 26504 test likely.
RUT DIA
RUT W: Still above YR2, but last week’s bar notably weak.
IWM D: Green arrows show monthly pivot holds. Contrast to May when two tests then off to races, IWM does seem to getting tired. Still holding MP this month but having trouble to lift.
RUT sum: Only USA main index above YR2 and holding MP several times in Sept, but having trouble to lift.
NYA
W: Between long term levels.
D: Showing pivot holds and pivot / resistance selling.
NYA sum: A good institutional index and confirming indicator. There have been more false breaks and recoveries on this (reflecting international weakness) than the other USA mains. However, when this index joins in signal either bullish or bearish it rarely fails. So far pivot recovery on 9/11 part of tell for more gains.
