Sum
All 5 USA main indexes back above all long & medium term pivots is bullish. QQQ has resumed as main index leader as IWM has faded a bit with again trouble at YR2 then JulR1. SPY / SPX looks like it should reach QR1 YR2 cluster 282 / 2820-30. Better for bull case for NYA to stay above HP.
SPX / SPY / ES
SPX M: Monthly close high at 2823 additional factor to watch.
SPX W: Strong move up from 2HP in process; should reach YR2, then if above can think HR2.
SPY D: All Q1 highs directly on levels; not so in Q2. Hoping Q3 back to normal and if so YR2 at 282 decent bet from here.
ES D: Above all pivots and MAs with MACD positive and RSI not overbought from 7/9 - this means healthy up with room to move higher.
SPY 2H: RSI near overbought (70) twice on this rally so far; January aside, this is where pros have sold.
SPX sum: Base case is going for SPX YR2 QR1 cluster at 2820-30, which also happens to the monthly close high area. Upside for the coming week may not be as easy as 7/6-12 but pivot status gives bulls benefit of doubt.
NDX / QQQ
NDX W: Looks like HR1 / YR2 near 7500 doable.
QQQ D: QR1, 2HR1 then YR2 all 182-184.
NDX sum: Power move up in play despite last month's toppy bar; new highs last week. Should reach QR1 at least and ideally HR2 or YR2.
DJI / DIA
DJI sum: Above 2HP is bullish. Expecting to see JulR1 and maybe QR1.
W: Recovered HP weakens the bear case.
D: Watching JulR1 then QR1.
RUT / IWM
RUT W: Trouble at YR2 but weak selling looks like it try again.
IWM D: Daily chart looks a bit weaker with JulR1 rejection last 3 trading days. Also, hasn't made new high like QQQ.
RUT sum: Was leader on rally last week but fading with YR2 stopping the move and then below JulR1 whereas QQQ and SPY are above JulR1. This is interesting turn of events and given proximity to start of 2H worth bearish in mind. At this point if reducing longs next week IWM would be first to go (compared to XBI, QQQ, SPY); and conceivably could turn into main index hedge which it hasn't been for all of Q2.
NYA
W: Above HP is bullish but not convincing and may fade.
D: Above HP for 3 of last 4 trading days. Better for bull scenario to stay above HP.
