Sum
Leader IWM held above all pivots last week, and QQQ joined IWM back above its QP and MP. The other 3 USA mains, SPX, INDU (DJI) and NYA, again held long term support levels - HPs D200MAs and another YP test and hold for NYA.
After massive hold of D200MA, bulls have the ball. I think there is decent chance for a move back to the higher end of recent ranges meaning MayR1 or maybe higher on the leaders. SPY will have to clear Q2P, DIA stay above MP, and NYA stay above HP for rally scenario to be on.
I included quarterly charts on SPX and NDX to show the bigger picture - SPX quarterly BB likely resistance through June. This means limited upside on the rally if that indeed plays out as preferred.
SPX / SPY / ES
SPX Q: After dropping back inside the BB in Q1, Q2 tested the upper band and did not exceed it. This means 2730 likely resistance through June.
SPX M: So far pullback has held M10MA for 3 complete bars and starting on a 4th this year. Watch RSI - if it does not exceed 70 on the next move up then the following larger move should be lower.
SPX W: This looks to have more potential with several lows near rising W50MA. Watching W20MA and on the next move up.
SPX W LT pivots: High of year on HR2, low of year YP; 2nd high near HR1, other lows near HP.
SPY D LT & MT pivots: NEeds to clear QP and turn positive on the year again.
ES D: A bit more work to clear QP, and D50MA also there.
Sum: Another hold of long term support. Due to daily and weekly charts, the stage is set for more on the rally. However, upside likely limited to Q chart BB.
NDX / QQQ / NQ
Q: Still pushing outside the BB.
M: Nice hold of rising 10MA, and no glaring divergence on RSI yet.
W: Already above rising W20MA.
W LT pivots: If stays above HR1 retest of YR1 looks more possible.
D LT & MT pivots: MayR1 / YR1 targets; above all pivots.
NQ D: Also above all MAs and MACD positive
NDX: Still the considerably stronger index compared to SPX on pivots, moving averages, Bollinger bands and RSIs on various timeframes.
INDU / DIA
INDU W: 6 weekly tests or near tests of HP this year; 4 of these reached level exact.
DIA D: Huge hold of D200MA, but a lot more work to do to reclaim QP. Notice the highs: YR1 in Jan, FebP, Q2P overshoot by 2 days.
INDU: Structure more like SPX but weaker; holding of long term support and recovery of MP which is definite positive, but well under QP.
RUT / IWM
RUT W: Between long term support and resistance.
IWM D: Held above all pivots (except for one fractional break on 4/30) since 4/11.
RUT: Relative leader, has been been above all pivots for weeks. If other main indexes continue rally this should have decent chance at MayR1.
NYA
W: Hold above YP and HP.
D: Huge save of YP but if rally is to continue this needs to lift further above D200MA.
