Sum
Most indexes saw some decline from resistance last week: SPY dropped under MR1 then that level was resistance for the rest of the week; QQQ dropped harder from YR1 tag; DIA topped slightly above MR1 to drop under it the next day and back to testing QP; NYA similar with top exact on on MR1 and down to test QP. Only IWM had a one day pullback and then went higher above resistance cluster to finish the week.
My preferred scenario is that quarterly Bollinger bands are resistance. These are all upward sloping so it is possible that indexes "push the bands" in a slowing momentum rally, but it is also possible that we are about to see another tradeable move lower. SPX band 2742, exact high 2742; NDX band 6816, so currently at 6866 is still a bit outside; INDU band 24787, so far Q2 high just a few points above at 24994 and currently 24715 back just under the level.
If this idea is correct then DIA QP is about to break and NDX/QQQ about to lead lower. For this to play out the first tell would be more USA main indexes below weekly pivots; last week, only QQQ finished under its WP.
SPX / SPY / ES
SPX Q: Pushing the Q Bollinger band, current value 2742. My expectation is that this level is resistance for the rest of Q2 which implies limited upside and more risk of drop.
SPX M: Note RSI pausing at the 70 level. To trained eyes this is an important factor for the next larger move as the series drops usually occur with RSI peaks in this area and not above (5/2015, 7/2007, 3/2000 monthly RSI highs 70.7, 72.4 and 68.4 respectively).
SPX W: W50MA (purple) definitive hold on early April low test, now at 20MA (orange) which is part of the deciding factor for next week.
SPY D: Resistance at MR1 for 4 days last week but no serious drop.
ES D: 2nd time above all pivots on Q2 on 5/9; currently above all pivots and MAs.
SPX bottom line uptrends intact but momentum weakening. Basic preference is for upper Q Bollinger band to act as resistance so that means price stops cold at the 2742 area which so far is the exact high. That said SPY under MayR1 4 days last week without any serious drop. Weekly pivots will be an interesting tell for the next move.
NDX / QQQ
NDX Q: Somehow has pushed up outside the Q BB again 6817.
NDX M: But resistance at the monthly close high.
NDX W: YR1 stopped the rally last week.
QQQ D: YR1 rejection but just mild pullback to MR1 so far.
NQ D: Above all pivots again on 5/4; Friday closed above all MAs except 10.
NDX Sum: YR1 so far has stopped the rally. Still well above medium term pivots so short term (ie weekly and daily) will be an interesting tell for next week.
INDU / DIA
INDU Q: Testing Q BB of 24787.
DIA D: Sitting on QP which led 4 days last week without breaking - keep watching.
INDU Sum: If idea that Q BBs are resistance from there, then QP is about to break.
RUT / IWM
IWM D: USA main index leader as IWM above all long & medium term pivots from 4/12 with exception of fractional break on 4/30. May started teh month with 3 definitive holds of MP then a launch. Brief pullback from resistance cluster and then zoomed above. Definite win for the bulls and the best long main index long vehicle for May. Maintaining above YR1 helps the bull case.
NYA
Q: BB value 12842, so far high 12821.
D: Above all pivots on 5/10 but resistance two days later on MayR1 and then down; testing QP again.
