I've scaled back the detailed weekly posts but still aiming for a more thorough version once a month.
Sum
All 5 USA main indexes had YR1 rejections and monthly pivot breaks last week. This sort of coordinated activity from yearly levels doesn't happen too often. Usually there are a handful of weeks over a few year span that are definitive, and this was one of them. This doesn't mean I think 'the final high' is in, but given the yearly levels involved it is more likely we just saw a more significant trading top.
RUT/IWM showed relative weakness in Bollinger band structure on monthly and weekly charts, and was a first choice for short hedges as noted in 1/23/2018 Daily comment.
My Twitter and Daily comments were all over this move. Basically, if we saw VIX above all pivots and any bearish action from YR1 areas I was ready to act.
1/29: "I have rarely regretted taking defensive action with VIX exploding above all pivots. Today met criteria for taking partial profits per Daily comment of last week."
So if you have been following along, Friday was a rather pleasant after taking profits on longs early in the week and adding to UVXY. Now we can analyze what and when to buy back.
Since all USA main indexes are below monthly pivots for the first time since August-September, I expect to see FebS1s. But let's not get too carried away on the downside. The first drop off highs is usually not the biggest move.
SPX / SPY / ES
SPX M: Monthly chart BB overshoots are rare; price falling back inside band.
SPX W: Weekly chart BB overshoot 4 consecutive bars, very rare; fall back inide band. 10MA and 20MA likely support.
SPX W: YR1 rejection. Actual top near 1HR2, also back under 1HR1.
SPY D: YR1 rejection and FebP break.
ESH D: First pivot break since August.
SPX sum: After torrid rise pushing out outside weekly and monthly bands with RSIs in record territory SPX slammed last week from YR1 levels. Lots of support below and we'll likely see a bounce from weekly 10MA / daily 50MA / FebS1; if drop wanted to be more scary then Q1P 2629 but that is more than I am currently anticipating.
NDX / QQQ
NDX M: Falling back inside monthly band.
NDX W: Fell back insede band after 4 weeks outside.
QQQ D: YR1 rejection and FebP slight break.
NDX sum: Before assuming bull market is over check 6/2017 bar on monthly chart; also back inside monthly band after strong run. However, YR1 rejection and FebP break. NDX could easily reclaim FebP on any bounce so this will be a key area to watch next week.
INDU / DIA
INDU M: Similar story, outside monthly band now falling back inside.
INDU W: YR1 rejection.
DIA: YR1 rejection and FebP break.
Sum: At this point expecting FebS1 at minimum; Q1P looks like too much for first drop off highs.
RUT / IWM
RUT M: Did not push outside band; clear resistance from level.
RUT W: Did not push outside band; 2 weak advances before being slammed.
RUT W: 1HR1 tag and down
IWM D: Did not quite reach YR1.
RUT sum: Noticeably weaker than others on monthly and weekly BB structure. Q1P very doable on this chart.
NYA & VTI
NYA W: 1HR2 top, YR1 break.
NYA D: 3 days before the plunge NYA was giving clues with resistance at YR1.
VTI W: 1HR2 top, YR1 break.
VTI D: Similarly, 3 days before the plunge VTI resistance at YR1.
