REVIEW
2/18/2018 Total market view: "What is most likely is development of some trading range. This is the natural sequence after the nearly 18 month run from the last key Brexit low in June 2016. If long, then it is time to exercise more caution via risk management, exposure levels, or willingness to re-enter short hedges. If this idea is right we are going to see more struggles around highs as pros start to distribute to lessen their exposure. Now the most interesting question - if all this is on the right track, where will this $ go? With late cycle investing playbook on script, bonds no help, inflation picking up, the place is commodities. Smart $ has already figured this out and bought EWZ and RSX even when oil was dropping. These are among top leaders of 2018 so far. Regardless whatever is above all pivots is the place to be and if more commodity themed ETFs, futures, etc join this list then this idea will start to look very correct."

The result was some selling around highs for several days last week, though Friday resolved higher. Oil via USO, EWZ, RSX among leaders for last week's performance.

SUM
Since the 2/9 low, risk assets are doing very well. Main USA index leader QQQ convincingly reclaimed the status of above all pivots on Friday. The tech sector ETFs that I follow - QQQ, XBI, SMH and KWEB - all finished the week above all pivots, joining EWZ and RSX that I highlighted previously.

Per put-call ratios, people are very skeptical of the rally. I am too a bit, but consider:

Massive hold of YPs, HPs, and D200 & D100MAs across indexes on 2/9
USA mains and others back above QPs 2/12+; many back above D50MAs, D20MAs, etc
Tech leading the market with main index QQQ, both tech sectors SMH and XBI, and China tech all above all pivots
Very high put-call ratios per this tweet

Though I am expecting more volatility in general in 2018, and more trouble at various resistance areas, now the most likely path seems to be tech strength and high test, which will pull other indexes higher. In addition, some indexes like SPY that are still below FebP are on track to open above MarP. An expansion of risk assets above all pivots would support this more bullish view.

I am still concerned about the quarterly charts, and don't think 2018 will trend the same way as 2017. But for now I'm playing for the QQQ YR1 area high test. New March pivots in play from Wednesday will be easy clues on further strength or weakness.

PIVOTS
USA main indexes - QQQ convincingly back above all pivots as of Friday.

Sectors of note - XBI and SMH above all pivots.

Global indexes - KWEB above all pivots, joining EWZ and RSX already there. EEM and FXI within range.

Safe havens - GLD fell back under FebP last week, and GDX and SLV had more damage. VIX while dropping under YR3, then YR2 and now testing YR1 area is still above all pivots.

Currency & commodity - USO nearly above all pivots. Bitcoin below all pivots.

OTHER TECHNICALS
Past incidences of the 10 day average of new 52 week highs exceeding that of lows have been good places to drop bearish caution and re-commit to the bull side.

VALUATION
Valuation levels rising sharply means SPX earnings are looking good. I still expect pro selling in 19-20X though.

SENTIMENT
Per put-call tweet above, people have bought a lot of protection - after the market went down 10%. Lol.

TIMING
Tweet from 1/24: volatility window 1/25-2/2 and perhaps extending through 2/15

Tweet from 2/6: "Since vol extended past 2/2, think instability in general through 2/15, & 2/9 looking like a key date. With YPs along with D200MAs testing and holding on both ES and YM near term move most likely furious bounce that then fails and sets up lower or divergence lows into 2/9." Ding! And that was pre-open!

February dates
2/2 - middle of drop
2/9 - added per tweet maybe low
2/12 - middle of move
2/15 - end of volatility window per above; so far TLT, AGG, LQD lows all 2/14 (-1)

March dates
3/6 (minor)
3/8-9 (strong)
3/16
3/22-26