Sum
After testing and holding long term pivots on 2/9, all 5 USA main indexes rallied impressively last week and all returned to positive YTD % territory. NDX/QQQ is the clear leader, which is often bullish for the market; but it was unable to put in a weekly close above all pivots. QQQ FebP level to watch from here; more bullish if above. Of the other 4, SPY and VTI closed under Q1R1 resistance.
Both NYA and IWM are barely positive for the year; IWM remains first choice for USA main index short hedging. NYA reflects more global positioning but I view it as often reliable tell for the larger market.
Despite the recent hold, the toppy looking quarterly charts and extremely high RSIs are my concern. I doubt that 2018 will trend in a similar manner as 2017. After a trending move the next most common move is not an immediate crash but establishment of a trading range. This would imply professional selling on any move higher, or perhaps a down week next week before another attempt to rally towards highs.
Bullish scenario would be QQQ continuing to lead higher and reclaim status of above all pivots, with IWM remaining in positive YTD territory;
Bearish is SPY and VTI Q1R1 rejections with IWM and NYA fading back to negative YTD%.
SPX / SPY / ES
SPX Q: About 6 weeks to go until close to but me this is the most threatening chart. BB 2702.
SPX W: Really fun how pivots work sometimes; 1HR2 high to YP low, back to near 1HR1.
SPY D: Close just under Q1R1 gives near term edge to bears.
ES D: Congested above D50 and below D20; clear buying at YP, 1HP, then Q1P.
SPX sum: Bullish hold of YP, 1HP and launch from Q1P all great buying opportunities. But not yet above all pivots and for now Q1R1 and falling D20 resistance.
NDX / QQQ / NQ
NDX Q: The stronger rebound makes this chart look more healthy compared to SPX. Still, RSI 88 and outside the BB is not going to last forever.
NXD W: Perfect hold of 1HP.
QQQ D: High on Q1R2, faded back under FebP slightly. Still above 1HR1.
NQ D: V moves can be tough to catch, but 2/9 low had 2 levels and a rising MA on your side.
NDX sum: NDX clear leader on bounce and even closed back above all pivots for 1 day. FebP key level to watch for next week. Though NDX bounce is reducing the wick on the quarterly bar, RSI 88 and power up outside the Bollinger band is not going to last forever.
INDU / DIA
INDU Q: Again 6 weeks until close but this is a pro sell and not a buy or hold at this configuration. 5th quarter outside the BB, and could have stayed back inside band but rallied back outside on the bounce. RSI nearing 1987 levels, only exceeded in the 90s.
INDU W: YR1 top to 1HP low. The other arrows are: definitive Feb & Feb 2016 lows on YS1, definitive hold of YP on 6/2016 low, definitive jump above YR1 after election, definitive jump above YR1 July 2017, definitive clear of YR2 Oct 2017, and so now why wouldn't we have definitive top at YR1? OK the pivot is also holding, and that could also be definitive; this sets up trading range.
DIA D: Getting back into + YTD at the red line on 2/14 attracted more buyers, but not much follow through. These levels will continue to be important; a second move back to - YTD % would be bearish.
INDU sum: Give the points about the INDU weekly chart and definitive turns on pivot, support & resistance levels it is quite possible that we saw both a definitive high and low for the time being. This sets up trading range which is the most logical next step after trending move anyway. For now better for bulls for DIA to stay in positive territory for the year.
RUT / IWM
RUT Q: Pro short sellers are salivating at this bar. Unlike the others, no able to stay outside the BB this time.
RUT M: This chart doesn't look bad, with impressive hold of rising 10MA.
RUT W: Nice hold of rising W50MA and lower BB. 10MA and 20MA in play.
RUT W: 2016 low on YS2, 2018 high on YR1.
IWM D: Just barely positive YTD and any trouble next week and IWM remains first choice for stock short hedges.
NYA & VTI
NYA W: High on 1HR2, hold of YP and 1HP.
NYA D: Barely positive YTD.
VTI W: Often similar to SPX.
VTI D: Q1R1 resistance.
