Total market view

REVIEW
12/31/2017 Total market view: "I wouldn't be surprised to see risk start off strong in 2018 but at the same time I doubt it will be a repeat of January '17. ... Moderately long, getting out of the way of tech, global focus INDA, with a starter GDX from 12/24 and later bigger add on GLD on 12/26, seems a fine way to begin 2018."

Result
2018 starting strong; adding back on tech, SMH, EEM was a great start to the year.

SUM
All systems go for stocks with all USA mains, the four sectors that I track (SMH XBI XLF XLE), and all 8 global indexes (ACWI, SHComp, FXI, EEM, KWEB, INDA, EWZ and RSX) all above all pivots. 

Bonds are clearly the weak link with TLT, AGG and LQD below 1HP, Q1P and JanP. They maintain above YPs though. Also, for investing purposes, better to use total return technicals before avoiding as an asset class. More on this in a dedicated post soon. 

Interestingly metals making a move with GLD, GDX and SLV above all pivots; partially reflecting DXY weakness below all pivots. 

As this is happening put-call has lifted off low levels, and new high / new low chart looks very healthy with new lows remaining at low levels. 

Long and strong with some remaining GLD going fine; if we see more signs of top then IWM looks like first choice for short hedges. I'll avoid TLT unless it recovers above all pivots or trades down to YP.

PIVOTS
USA main indexes: Keep it simple likely to be reached targets are SPX YR1 2830, NDX YR1 6984, INDU YR1 26504.

Safe havens: Stocks stronger with TLT below 3 of 4 pivots. 

Sectors of note: Last two touches of SMH pivots were great buys: 4/18-24 break then recovery of Q2P and AprP; 7/3-11 test and hold of 2HP, recovery of Q3P then above JulP. 1/2/2018 hold of JanP and Q1P. 

OTHER TECHNICALS
New highs / new lows have a flat new low line. No worries until we see that drift higher.

SENTIMENT
Standard put-call still working quite well as sentiment measure; off low levels of early December.

VALUATION
Heading for 19X forward earnings? SPX above 18X on real and 10 week moving average basis since October.

TIMING
1/4 (middle of up)
1/10
1/15