Sum
Despite the VIX launch on 7/6 above 2HP / Q3P / JulP and slightly above its D200MA, the next day right back down to finish below all pivots again. At some point VIX will not reverse so quickly but as long as this happens I'll keep buying back in stocks. But at the same time, I will continue to take defensive action when VIX or XIV sounds alarm.
All other safe havens - TLT, AGG, GLD, GDX - look very weak. All four below all pivots except GLD, still above its YP. Most below MAs as well. Weaker safe havens tends to be bullish for risk assets. If XIV can lift above its JulP next week that would help confirm bullish upside resolution for stocks.
VIX
W: Test of long term pivots and then falling back under levels tend to be the best areas for stock buys.
D: Friday really quite bullish move for stocks according to VIX. It could have gone the other way and launched above the D200 heading to 15 area.
VIX: While volatility picking up into quarter end and new Q3, so far test of 2HP / Q3P and D200MA resolving in bullish fashion.
Note: Not shown are VXN, VXD and RVX. VXN still above 2HP/Q3P, and the others still above JulPs.
XIV
D: Despite smash from JulP, held Q3P for healthy bounce. Let's see if this confirms upside next week.
VXX / UVXY (UVXY is 2x version)
VXX D: Not a long term hold! First time above a pivot since April. Thought worth a shot. Did nicely to hedge portfolio on 7/6. Had to scram early on remaining unit 7/7 with VIX falling back under 2HP. Note setup: above pivot, above 2 MAs (not really rising slope though) and MACD recent positive. Chance for gain despite relentless downtrend. At some point, this is going to skyrocket.
TLT
W: YP rejection and fell through 2HP. Bearish!
D: Under all pivots, and back under falling D200 as well. Path of least resistance is down.
AGG
Below all pivots and MAs!
GLD
W: Below 2HP, testing YP again. Despite being above both long term levels for most of the first half, GLD did not reach long term resistance. This kind of pivot failure only becomes clear in hindsight, but adds to bearish bias.
D: Massive gap down to start Q3. HArd to chase with RSI so close to oversold. But below all MAs, and just a little lower would look like massive breakdown below all pivots.
GDX
Lower and lower highs; D200 fail; 3rd YP breakdown, below all pivots and MAs. Could fall off cliff and wishing short.
