10 week moving average of 18x forward earnings in blue, and SPX in orange. This chart removes 2016 Q4 data so slope of recent moves more clear. Since May, earnings estimates rising with impressive slope. Price has knocked against this a few times on weekly close but not exceeded. It will take a levelling off of earnings to put real selling pressure on the market. Estimate 3 on scale of -5 to +5.

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index still terrible. It would be interesting to see the global versions, but as far as I know that takes a Bloomberg. Score -4.

Combined estimate:
3x2 (to double weight) = 6
-4
Total 2.

These measures have argued for more tepid equities, but if profits are increasing and fundamentals improving outside the USA, that rather nicely aligns with current markets.