Sum
VIX and XIV tend to be right on the market, and these are pointing to bullish resolution for stocks. But watching XIV YR3 for possible turn. Despite the bullish implications of VIX and XIV, TLT and especially GLD seem to be speaking loudly - both above Q3Ps.
If both TLT and GLD rally above all pivots (both are not far from this condition) it may be correct to reduce stock positions no matter what VIX & XIV do (against my usual view to put more weight on VIX and XIV for stock positioning).
Portfolio has had 20% in GLD from 7/11 and done nicely with this. Easy to hold if Q3P maintains as support.
VIX
VIX still getting crushed. VIX lower (!) despite stocks higher. If VIX is right indexes are right back to highs on Monday. Could happen.
XIV
W: Nearing YR3! How new from YS1 low early 2016 and YP hold Nov 2016 that this year would have such a run. No selling from YR2, YR2 had a drop, then turned into support twice.
D: Straight up from 7/7 on. Above Q3R1, nearing YR3. RSI overbought.
Sum: Thus far, warnings of crowded VIX shorts have not materialized. This keeps printing money. But if any level can stop a move, it is yearly resistance.
TLT
W: Held 2HP, back to testing YP.
D: Almost but not quite above the JulP. Rising D50 won over falling D20.
TLT sum: So far resolving recent congestion area to upside. Interesting and odd that TLT rising along with XIV from 7/7.
AGG
Above all pivots from 7/19+; above all MAs except D400.
GLD
W: Hold of YP and then bullish launch above 2HP.
D: Buy on 7/11 doing well, but let's face facts, GLD has faded several times this year so exit could be tough decision.
D: 3rd time this year trying to rally from D200MA (or 4th depending on how you count).
GDX
Despite the strength in GLD, GDX still cannot get it going. Below YP, still below D200MA.