Safe havens

Sum
VIX and XIV, though extended, are still very supportive of risk assets. TLT looks ready to drop, and rising rates would benefit financials most of all and support a rotation move that keeps indexes broadly higher. However, AGG with shorter durations is putting up more a fight, and still above its YP. GLD also looks ready to drop, and though my focus has been equities GDX short could trigger with anything lower than YP.

Bottom line safe havens seem to help support stocks, despite the weak look of stocks and my preference for a pullback as the next move.

VIX
Q: Lowest quarterly close ever at 11.18. Previous was 1993 Q2 at 11.26. VIX buyers at the lower BB.
M: 1/2007 close 10.42, 5/2017 close 10.41. Reversal bar with huge wick is unclear. 
W: Hasn't reached YP this year; not going to see YS1 however. 
Sum: VIX in 2007 was just screaming. VIX in 2014-15 also did well. I 'think' the VIX will be similarly clued in but now that more and more people are watching and trading it, maybe not. Bottom line right now is that pro SPX traders are not too concerned about hedging their longs. 

1 20 VIX Q.png
1 22 VIX W.png

XIV
M: 5 months outside BB, last month price outside but close inside - some divergence!
W: Last November for the election with the XIV bang on the YP, I never could have imagined the move that followed. YR2 held it for a few weeks, but has cleared and held since late April. 
UVXY is a deathtrap, but maybe worth looking at in weeks ahead. 

1 23 XIV M.png

TLT
Q: Tried but failed to reclaim 10MA.
M: Stopped at M20MA
W: Tried to reclaim YP but only 1 week then fail. 
Sum: TLT may open above 2HP and Q3P, but YP resistance is bearish. If stocks have a true risk off move based on trade war or some such, TLT will likely rally back above the YP. If it is a garden variety pullback based on rising rates, TLT will continue lower. 

1 25 TLT Q.png
1 26 TLT M.png

AGG
M: 50% bounce then hit.
W: Still above YP though.
Sum: AGG still holding YP, game not over. We'll see.

GLD
Q: Congestion, no signal. Above rising 10MA, below falling 20MA. Weak selling helps the next move up.
M: Above rising 20, but back under falling 50MA. Weak up, bigger drop. Ball in bear court. 
W: Between levels, 2HP & Q3P will be interesting to see. 
Sum: Charts look weak here, but if stocks get hit GLD should rally. We will see. 

1 30 GLD Q.png
1 31 GLD M.png

GDX
W: 3 holds / recoveries of YP to go nowhere, and lower highs each time. If YP goes it will probably go big. Watching for a trade.