REVIEW
3/26/2017 Total market view: "I don't have a strong opinion as to what "should" play out in the coming week. The market is near areas that typically bounce - monthly pivots on SPY, DIA and VTI (bit further away for QQQ); and and rising daily 50MAs testing or near testing on the same SPY, DIA and VTI (again bit futher away on QQQ). This is enough for a bounce."
Result
USA main indexes held monthly pivots and daily 50MAs as preferred.
SUM
It so happens that many definitive moves start near the beginnings of new quarters. In 2017 Q1, it was tech and global stocks up. In 2016 Q4, it was safe havens TLT and GLD lower. In 2016 Q3, all stocks up. The list goes on but you get the point.
What will it be for 2017 Q2? I don't know. There are arguments for both sides - ie, stocks up and safe havens lower, or stocks continue pullback mode as safe havens rally. As usual I will let pivots be my guide - if the majority of stock indexes are above Q2 pivots, or test and hold, then it is correct to stay bullish on risk assets. But if stock indexes open below Q2 pivots or break, as safe havens are above Q2 pivots, then it is correct to be defensive. We'll see what happens.
In place of the usual USA main index and safe haven pivot posts I did a long term chart analysis here. Check back for the pivot status on Monday.
Bottom line
As usual I will make decisions based on pivot status, and new Q2 and April pivots will set the stage for the next move.
Positioning
Portfolio has 11 longs and 1 short hedge for 100% net. There may be significant adjustments ahead.
PIVOTS
Check back on Monday for status of Q2 and April pivots.
OTHER TECHNICALS
Check here for full rundown of long term charts.
FUNDAMENTALS & VALUATION
USA stocks fully valued, which adds to the idea of global index out-performance as long as conditions supportive for risk assets.
SENTIMENT
Mixed. Put-call looks like stock pullback low, but ISEE reached highest level since 10/10/2016 on Friday which tends to limit upside.
TIMING
(Proprietary experimental work in progress model)
3/3 - So far stock high 3/1, but I don't count -2 days as a hit. DXY high 3/2 FWIW.
3/20 - Non event, but QQQ & EEM price high 3/21
3/24 - Stock low on closing basis
April dates
4/6-7
4/10
4/19-20
4/26