I've made a series of posts on tops in the Dow to investigate whether there are consistent technical signatures. Also it is so easy to pull up charts that I figure that almost everyone is very familiar with 2000 and 2007 due to recency bias. Expectations of a similar set up may not happen.
Let's try to think about some core principles.
1. Is market is blow-off phase? 1929 Dow, 1955-56 Dow, 1989 NKY, 2000 NDX, 2007 SHComp, 2015 XBI?
Blow-off is most easily defined by quarterly RSI 2 quarters 85+. If so, then typically the drop that follows is dramatic. 1955-56 is the outlier here.
This isn't the case now in 2017.
2. Is market in a range? This is a weaker top by definition - at previous highs or lower. 1946 Dow, 2007 SPX.
Also not the case. Most USA main indexes took out the previous range highs in 2013. NDX more recently, and NYA also different structure. NYA also had a much bigger pop higher in 2007 due to global stock inclusion. NDX above its 2000 top is really helping the bull case. There has been a powerful rally above that level and return to 4816 does not look likely anytime soon.
3. Quarterly chart BB & RSI divergence? Monthly chart BB & RSI divergence? Pivot long term level rejection and/or level fail, then break of YP?
To my eyes, no Q or M chart RSI or BB divergence. This means we are typically more likely to see higher highs ahead to set up those divergence highs. Sometimes there are tops that don't give good indications. More of those are in ranges. Some really do come out of the blue (technically speaking) like 1987.
The more pesky thing is that there are several incidences of seeming BB and RSI divergence setups that don't produce a high. That said, the signature is more likely to produce a meaningful top when it occurs on both quarterly and monthly charts together.
The real question here - impossible to answer - is whether stocks prematurely broke out of ranges due to global QE, and may lack the technical signatures of true breakouts on the next major top. Perhaps!
The other thing is that I'd like to chart valuations of pre-IPO companies like Uber and AirB&B, and let's throw Snapchat in this category too. I suspect the parabolic curve is there - yet some not in existence long enough to even have quarterly chart RSI! The beneficiaries of these trends are founders, early stage investors, a circle of well placed employees, and board members - generally not the retail investing public. Sure, FB buyers have done well - after several months and -40% drawdown. Also, for every FB, think TWTR, GPRO, etc.
But let's keep it simple - long term pivot level rejections merit caution, but usually the real damage happens when multiple indexes are below yearly pivots. Markets made that move in 2016, went down to YS1s (mostly, RUT on YS2) and recovered. There is no telling when it will happen again, but bulls have earned benefit of the doubt with virtually all risk asset indexes above YPs.
Once in a while there is an outlier like 1987 - a dramatic move, not many clues, all above yearly pivot. It is quite rare but if you are following my comments on pivot rejections and VIX at least you would likely be decently hedged.