The Thomson Reuters reporting of SPX 12 month forward P/E got up to 17.99 on 3/19, held at 17.93 when SPX dropped the week of 3/24, and then went down to 17.68 the week SPX rallied. There is something going on that I don't get and it may be as simple as a 1 week lag. Anyway, this is why I've switched to 10 period moving averages (for several months now).

The 10MA of earnings itself is still in uptrend, but slowing increase and maybe leveling off.

The 10MA of 18x forward earnings - which has been the low end of my target range for months, is similar, leveling off after sharp ascent.

Here's that same 18x P/E MA and SPX price in orange. SPX tagged the area for a few trading days on the 3/1 highs but not on weekly close.

Last week I said valuation concerns had turned negative due to the drop in the 18x P/E, but this week returned to gains so let's say 0. Market is fully valued but not a negative if going up.

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Citigroup Economic Surprise Index looks like it dropped a bit but still from a very healthy area. That still is a 4.

Combined effect is mild positive and the simple math of my very rough estimate is a 2 on scale of -5 to +5. Valuation concerns should limited upside somewhat, but strong fundamentals also limit declines.

I think the move that most institutions agree upon is to global. Yardeni has put out a list of forward P/Es country by country. India is commanding nearly the same multiple as SPX, but that is because of demographics and growth. Nearly everything else is cheaper than the USA. This move of global out-performance is already in process especially this year, and I think likely to be a theme for more than 1 quarter.