Total market view

Review
2/26 Total market view: "Stocks have been incredibly strong, and with VIX below all pivots it has been best to hold risk assets. With market leader QQQ at major resistance there is a level worth watching, but probably best to err on the side of holding longs until multiple indexes are at resistance, divergence is clear and both VIX & XIV along with other safe havens are showing signs of trouble."

Results
Markets went even higher with QQQ blasting above 1HR2. SPX set reached a resistance cluster, but no divergence and VIX /XIV concerns that were showing on 2/28 and 3/1 faded entirely by 3/3.

Sum
Amazing rally continues, but we saw something last week that has been rare since the election - clear selling from levels. Granted, most of the levels involved were monthly resistance but SPX set reached 1HR2 with YR1 just above. This is not insignificant. However, 2017 leader NDX set remained above resistance, there is no divergence on RSI, sentiment does not seem too toppy, and after a big run up the first pullback is usually bought. 

In addition, the safe havens and VIX look terrible and this is bullish for stock indexes.

The most likely scenario from here is a consolidation or mild pullback for stock indexes (if they aren't going higher already) which then is bought and more indexes test key levels. What would be really nice to see for a top is more main indexes on more significant levels than monthly (ie quarterly, half-year and especially yearly) combined with more euphoric sentiment and RSI divergence for a major top. That said, momentum high looks about done. 

Bottom line
I really thought we saw a high on 3/2 with SPX rejection from YR1 1HR2 Q1R2 area and most other USA mains dropping from MarR1s. Then on Friday, VIX crushed below all pivots again and IWM the lagger held MarP and QQQ the leader stayed above resistance. Just cannot be too bearish here but ready to shift that way if the market does and confirmed by VIX or XIV. 

Positioning
Still 90% long but ready to shift. A few global indexes are near their monthly pivots and these seem like better risk-reward entries for longs especially considering USD rather weak considering jump in TNX & TYX. If stocks look more bearish then can hedge again on second SPY unit, and/or take gains on SMH.

Pivots
USA main indexes - Levels to watch are IWM MarP and SPX set resistance cluster of MarR1, Q1R2, 1HR2 and YR1 all 240-241. If market somehow higher, then DIA and VTI will be running into their Q1R2, 1HR2 and YR1 clusters too. Given the advance that has already occurred, I don't think the market will blast through these levels. 

Sectors of note
Been rising semi-conductors for about a year with a few days of out; still above all pivots but RSI not partying like the others is some warning. XLF reached Q1R1; while 2017 Q1 not my best, rotation out of IWM and overweight XLF has been a good move.

Safe havens
These look terrible. I was especially surprised to see VIX collapse on Friday after showing some signs of caution earlier in the week. TLT below all pivots and MAs, VIX below all pivots and MAs, GLD smacked from D200 MA. All this supports risk assets. 

Global indexes
Tracking EEM, FXI, INDA, RSX, EWZ, ACWI occasionally and SHComp sometimes. INDA strongest momentum right now. $USD did not rally as much as it should have given yields; this gives global indexes a chance to rally further. 

Currency and commodity
So let me get this straight - March rate hike odds went from 30something to 98 or at least above 80, while Le Pen gains in France and Europe bond yields are wacky, and $DXY has a weak advance? Odd. But this means global indexes could outperform USA for the near future.

Other technicals
The key thing I am watching for is divergence on RSI and Bollinger bands across timeframes on USA indexes. Currently, RSI highs of December daily charts were matched by the March pop, so there is no divergence. But SPY, DIA, QQQ and VTI are not going to stay outside of monthly Bollinger bands forever, so at some point we will see a drop back inside the band or a sideways move to allow time to catch up with price.

Valuation and fundamentals
Long term valuation target essentially tagged last week. This site has maintained for months that SPX should reach 18x-19x forward earnings for major bull market top, and that area finally tagged last week.  

Sentiment
December saw clear sentiment extremes and rally promptly stopped. 2017 not yet. 

Timing  (Proprietary experimental work in progress model)
3/3
3/20
3/24