Sum
First, two slight change of format - moving VIX and XIV from bottom of this post to the top given the importance of these in my stock index decisions. Also adding BND for larger bond market moves outside of USA long duration treasuries.
VIX - which tends to be right on the market - showed signs of concern on 2/28 with a jump above a monthly pivot the first since the election. Yet in 3 trading days, the concerns have totally faded with a plunge back under all pivots and MAs on 3/3. XIV while looking a bit more as a maybe top at 1HR2 is also back above all pivots and MAs. Thus, but VIX and XIV both very bullish for stocks.
Other safe havens look terrible. TLT bounce fail and back under all pivots and MAs. BND recent rejection of Q1P area and also under all pivots and MAs. While GLD is comparatively better, it had a bearish reaction from D200 and below a monthly pivot for the first time this year on 3/2-3.
Given how awful all the safe havens look, caution on stocks is not really warranted. It seems like safe haven collapse with stocks testing resistance or higher is more likely than safe haven bounce and immediate stock fade.
VIX
Weekly chart far from levels. Red line is 2014 low (low of decade) but the way things are moving move into 9s seems possible.
Daily chart calling BS to stock fade! Amazing. Testing MarS1. Have to say VIX dropping like that from a pivot is usually a good stock buy signal!
VIX liftoff above a monthly pivot and D50 total failure in 3 trading days!
VIX sum - VIX tends to be right on the market. VIX is currently very bullish on risk assets and warning signs of 2/28-29 have disappeared.
XIV
Above YR1, but 3 weeks under 1HR2.
Daily chart back above MarP and above all MAs.
XIV sum - some chance of top with 3 weeks of stall on 1HR2, but with daily chart above all pivots and MAs cannot be bearish yet.
TLT
Weekly chart from from either long term support or resistance.
Daily chart below MarS1.
D50 tried to lift twice but back under again, and MACD negative. This is a total avoid and as long as TLT is weak there is another reason to hold the overweight in financials.
TLT sum - Under all pivots and MAs, weak.
New - BND
Under YP / HP.
Clear rejection of Q1P area (did not quite tag).
What a great short setup on 2/24-27. Falling D100 and first near test of Q1P in months.
BND sum - Recent clear rejection of Q1P area and D100MA, back under all pivots and MAs.
GLD
Weekly chart still above YP and 1HP doing better than bonds.
GLD D below MarP though, first time this year.
GLD D with MAs show clear rejection of D200 and RSI 70 area hit.
GLD sum - better than both bond charts above, but GLD recently smacked from D200 and below a monthly pivot for the first time this year on 3/2-3.
GDX
Testing YP! Interesting that GDX could not move much even when GLD was lifting. Basically this is huge failure at D200. Does not look like great short setup with RSI so near oversold already and D400 can bounce as we saw in late 2016 - but still, if GLD weaker and GDX below YP then keep an eye as short candidate.