Valuation and fundamentals

The 10 week moving average of SPX forward earnings estimate according to Thomson Reuters continues to climb, reaching into the 132s for the first time since I adopted this method to smooth out of some of the noise. Thus the 10MA of P/E is stable despite the price jump in the index, which is bullish. 

I have been pointing to 18x as a nice sounding area for bull market euphoria high since starting this site, and observing how this level has moved over time. The 10MA of 18x is now 2384 with 19x at 2517. This target zone represents about 3.0% - 8.7% upside from Friday's close of 2316.

In the meantime I will watch 17.5x forward earnings to see if there is any reaction. The 10MA of 17.5 forward earnings now 2318.

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Citigroup Economic Surprise Index staying in positive territory for the longest span since 2014. Bullish.

Sum: while watching 17.5 forward earnings at 2318, I am still pulling for 18x-19x as a better bull market euphoria high. These levels are currently 2384-2517 or 3.0% - 8.7% higher than now. Fundamentals continue to support risk assets.