Abbreviated posting this week - Total market view only, no charts on typical supporting posts.
REVIEW
12/10/2017 Total market view: "Although there are major resistance levels worth watching - SPY & VTI Q4R3s, QQQ YR3, IWM YR1 and NYA YR2 - the trend gets the benefit of the doubt especially with all USA mains above all pivots. VIX and XIV fully supportive of risk assets, and most other safe havens not threatening risk."
Result - SPX & VTI Q4R3, IWM YR1 and NYA YR2 rejections 12/13-14, but VIX and XIV continued on the side of risk and indexes came roaring back on Friday 12/15.
SUM
VIX and XIV remain reliable clues for the market, last week ignoring the resistance rejections across SPX, INDU/DIA, RUT/IWM, VTI and especially the usually very reliable NYA; and sure enough indexes rallied back by the end of the week.
Global indexes, notably China, have recently turned into the weaker link: SHComp trading Q4P, EWZ also already below Q4P, FXI, KWEB and EEM below DecPs. Benchmark ACWI, INDA and RSX above all pivots.
TLT has been surprisingly strong - and if using this type of methodology, you don't have to think too hard about taking a position. Widely disliked and panned in strategist 2018 recommendations but all of a sudden perking up in December and above all pivots? Sure, why not? TLT higher despite index strength on Friday. Also note for the files, again a safe haven long easier than stock index short hedge.
That said, TLT also finished near quarterly resistance on Friday so I don't know the next move from here. Heading into holiday week giving stock bulls the benefit of the doubt especially after the strong rebound last week.
Interesting levels to watch: SPX DecR1 2684 then Q4R3 2668; INDU DecR1 24652, NDX/QQQ 2HR2 6489; RUT/IWM YR1 1518; and NYA YR2 12735. Then on safe havens there is TLT Q4R1 128.78 and XIV Q4R3 133.14.
PIVOTS
USA main indexes: All 5 USA mains above all pivots and above all MAs. Though several experienced selling from resistance last week including 2 yearly levels (on IWM and NYA), trend strength keeps winning.
Safe havens: VIX and XIV on the right side of markets; VIX below all pivots from 12/5 and clear risk on bar 12/6; XIV closed above all pivots from 9/11 on. TLT stronger yet metals weaker; GDX recovered YP last week also worth watching for partial positions (more likely to play out well fi stocks weaker).
Sectors of note: Locked in gains on SMH long 11/27 with a short-hedge and covered on Friday. Along with QQQ taking over leadership into the end of the week, both of these could be worth watching on long side.
Global indexes: As noted above, only ACWI, INDA and RSX above all pivots with China weakening somewhat across SHComp, FXI, KWEB and EEM (China influenced) all below DecPs.
Currency: DXY in Q4 has stopped dropping but that isn't saying too much.
OTHER TECHNICALS
All 5 USA indexes (including both sets of the pair that i could as #5) are outside quarterly Bollinger bands! This is very rare - setting the the likelihood of divergence highs before a larger drop.
VALUATION AND FUNDAMENTALS
SPX soaring above 18X forward earnings this quarter in correct anticipation of tax cut.
SENTIMENT
Put-call near 3.5 year lows.
TIMING
As it turned out, 7 dates provided for August. 2 were the high and low of the month. 2 were the second high and second low of the month. 2 were milder turns. 1 was non event.
Planning on a full review review of 2017 2nd half timing dates soon.
September dates
9/4-5 - 9/4 mild pullback low
9/13 - QQQ high and TLT low
9/22 (+/-1) - stock index high 9/20 (miss)
9/26 - stock pullback low 9/25 (-1)
9/29 - non event
October dates (listed from 10/1)
10/6-9 - 10/9 mild pullback low
10/19 - pullback low
10/23-26 - 10/25 pullback low
November dates
11/13 mild (non event?)
11/19-20 risk off (mild pullback low 11/19)
11/22 risk on (markets up esp 11/21)
December dates
12/1 (pullback low)
12/12 (mild trading high 12/12-13, but taken out by most indexes 12/15)
12/20-22