Total market view

Review
1/21 Total market view: "A bullish scenario from here would be IWM recovering its JanP (along with XLF) as other stock indexes advance. If that happens, along with safe havens confirming full risk on, we might want to be back to 100% long or more. A bearish scenario would be more of a shakeout down to Dow JanP and then below. If that happens we can hold existing positions or be a bit less long. Bottom line - While a range has developed which may go lower, at some point I think we will see a move back up to the top of the range and ideally higher for a significant top."

Off on lesser move, correct on larger move. I thought we might see more of a shakeout before an advance. Markets made a mildly lower low on 1/23 then zoomed up to highs. 

Sum
Excepting Tech, USA main indexes have been sideways since December. After this healthy consolidation, most indexes popped to higher highs last week. Given two indexes on levels (QQQ on Q1R2 and DIA and JanR1), RSI divergence, movement structure, we may have just seen a trading high. Even if that is the case, the better thing is to hold and reduce on what trades below FebPs which will be in play from Wednesday. 

Bottom line
The bull market is making an amazing move and usually this means better to err on the side of holding; ie, don't be too hasty to sell. Safe havens are all saying risk on. 

Positioning
110% long. First to reduce likely IWM, XLF then DIA. Most indexes far from any buy setups. 

Pivots
USA main indexes - QQQ on Q1R2, DIA on JanR1.

Sectors of note - XLF 5 days below JanP but quickly back to highs on the pop. XBI above pivots but notably not joining the party. XLE also weaker.

Safe havens - All confirming strength in risk assets. TLT holding JanP but otherwise weak; GLD stopped at 1HP, back under YP and Q1P. XIV soaring above YR1. 

Global indexes - EEM among 2017 winners, with fast move to Q1R1 and 1HR1 jsut above. FXI not as strong but above all pivots; INDA same; RSX popped last week, EWZ also to Q1R1 with 1HR1 just above. Ie, 2 of these are on significant resistance. 

Currency and commodity - DXY holding long term support thus far at 1Hp, and just a bit back above Q1P. Further strength in $USD would like stall some global indexes listed above and sink gold. 

Other technicals
SPY, DIA, QQQ and VTI are all outside monthly Bollinger bands; IWM just a shade within. This is an amazing move! Eyeballing SPY from 2009 lows there are only 5 other bars that are clearly outside the band. Charts outside BBs can continue to push up the band, or fall back inside. More often it is a sign of strength that leads to divergence highs (higher highs in price, weaker on indicator) before a major top. 

Valuation and fundamentals
Moderate positive for the market with 18x-19x target range currently 2405-2539.

Sentiment
Sentiment extremes reached mid December worked off in healthy fashion, but those extremes did work to stop the rally. Of 4 sentiment meters I track, currently 1 at extreme and 1 on lower side. If another reached extreme territory then it would help form a trading top. 

Timing  (Proprietary experimental work in progress model)
January dates published 1/1
1/4 (strong) - 1/3 DXY high
1/6-9 - 1/6 high for SPY, DIA and VTI
1/17-18 - 1/19 (+1) pullback low on SPY, DIA, IWM and VTI
1/28 - TBD

February dates

2/6
2/10
2/21
2/24-26