Sum
VIX below all pivots, yet tagging 11 or reaching into high 10s and seeing reaction up from there. Smart money looks to be selling stocks on lifts with VIX this low. TLT reclaimed JanP early in 2017, but selling from JanR2. GLD is the most interesting story, with stronger rally to YP / Q1P combo. I think this is the key tell for stocks ahead. If GLD rallies above its YP, then that is more bearish for USA stocks and will probably lead to test of DIA JanP. If GLD clearly rejected from YP, then stocks are going up and we'll probably see Dow 2K and higher.
Charts
Weekly with long term levels only
Daily with long term medium term
Daily with pivots only and other technicals
TLT
TLT W: Well between YP and YS1. In this case 1HP and 1HS1 are the same levels.
TLT D: Rally to JanR2, but selling from there. Under Q1P, and YP / 1HP combo.
TLT D: Only 3-4 days of enthusiastic buying since 12/28.
TLT sum: Long term downtrend below all pivots except monthly. Rally above a falling D 50MA did not last, although above a rising 10 and 20. Looks like this should resume lower, although sitting on weekly 200MA is another level to watch as support.
GLD
GLD W: Test of YP!
GLD D: 1 day fractional close above Q1P, but still right under YP.
GLD D: Unlike TLT, GLD bought significantly more than TLT. above D50MA and nicely rising 10 and 20MAs.
GLD Sum: Test of YP here! More bullish for stocks for that level to reject.
GDX
Could be long here with YP & Q1P area holding as support for 3 trading days, and MACD + from 12/29. But not much MA edge and heading into falling D100. Also below 1HP.
VIX
VIX W: Below all pivots, can go lower as 2014 low was 10.3.
VIX D: So far 2016 low support for VIX three times and twice in 2017.
VIX D: All below pivots for 2017, and below all MAs on close since 1/4.
VIX sum: VIX has reached into 10s at end of Dec 16 and on 1/13, with a tag of 11 even on 1/6. While VIX can go lower - 2014 low was 10.3 - smart money is selling stocks on lifts with VIX this low.
XIV
XIV W: Approaching 1HR1!
XIV D: Pause but no selling from Q3R1. Reached JanR2.
XIV sum: Strong and has confirmed long with leverage but at or near place where tops occur.