Last week: "I'd rather see stocks go a bit higher so we can see the INDU set tag its YR1 along with XIV YP, daily chart RSIs reach 70 area, SPX tag its monthly Bollinger band, a bullish capitulation on the one sentiment holdout that isn't frothy yet."
INDU didn't tag its YR1 yet. QQQ reached RSI overbought but not the others. Sentiment reached extreme on 3 of the 4 I track but that last one is still stubbornly holding out.
Sum
Hm. Mixed signals here with stocks maintaining strength while safe havens soar. I'd still rather see stocks move a bit higher, but think we might see selling into that strength. Keep in mind that moves outside weekly Bollinger bands even for USA stock indexes are rare. SPY has been outside its weekly band for 3 weeks but slowing; DIA has already dropped back inside. Ideal move is stock trading high in this 7/29-8/5 window with accompanying sentiment extremes reached 2 weeks ago, then some mild pullback as safe havens test highs or higher, then we'll see. With even perma-bull Tom Lee worried about August perhaps not much damage. NDX in particular looks fantastic and ready to test all time highs.
Pivots
USA mains - SPX set halfway above YR1s, INDU hasn't tagged yet. Tech set above 2HR1s very bullish. IWM strong above Q3R1, NYA some struggle to clear Q3R1 but no sign of rejection. That's the key point - fast move up to major levels but no sign of rejection yet. INDU dipped the most after 7/20 high but held Q3R1 has support.
Safe havens - TLT and GLD strong, yet VIX and XIV showing strength for stocks. Enjoy the choices to make $ in markets.
Global - other
Oil traded under all pivots on the definitive CL1 chart for 2 days last week, but holding D200 and looks set up for bounce. ACWI bullish, EEM continuing to trade above YP is bullish, EWZ continuing as the 2016 leader (above YR1!) despite drop in oil. China via Shanghai and FXI weaker, then EFA, DAX and NKY all weaker than USA, but right now doing OK. If lower, the first indexes to move below all pivots probably Shanghai Comp and NKY.
Of course, new August pivots for all markets in play.
Other technicals
These vary per chart. INDU worked off RSI extreme is bullish fashion so far, and NDX ignoring overbought very bullish for the market.
Valuation & fundamentals
What to say with Thomson Reuters p/e at 17.20? Stocks keep ignoring valuation concerns with bonds yields near all time lows. If view of final euphoria stage correct, maybe we will see 18-20x earnings. Currently 20x on Thomson data is 2527.
Sentiment
Extremes reached on 3/4 indexes I track last week, so far markets holding up well with only NDX continuing up.
Timing
7/29-8/5 one of the stronger windows of the year. Is it stock high or safe haven high? I'd rather see a stock trading top here. At the end of August I'll do dates for September.
August dates
8/9-10 stocks
8/12-13 bonds & gold
8/21-22 stocks
8/23-24 bonds & gold
8/29-9/1 all mkts