Sum
TLT and GLD both look strong, setting up for high tests or higher. Yet VIX and XIV look equally bullish for stocks.
If you took VIX seriously, then even with USA indexes at major resistance there was perhaps one day for a partial hedge on 7/21 just due to the reversal bar. But no reason to be worried about a big top yet. XIV looked toppy on 7/21 too, but not on any pivot. Then no red at all approaching the YR1 and then promptly soared above it. What I am getting at here is no sign of VIX / XIV confirmation of any top, which is part of my top checklist.
For a while I was perplexed by simultaneous stock and bond strength and didn't like the the contradiction. But I have shifted my perspective to view this as a global wealth inequality / central bank asset inflation scenario, where all assets held by the wealthy are going up. End of contradiction. For now, embrace it as whatever is leading can be TLT AND DIA / SPY / QQQ, which just makes it easier to make money in the markets. There is still some relative difference though, and if TLT is soaring stocks are more likely sideways or down (check TLT vs SPY 7/21 on).
TLT
Weekly chart looking pretty good here holding 2015 highs as support. Watch RSI on the next move up, because maybe setting up for divergence high test. If higher then 2HR1 / YR2 in play 145-148.
Daily chart didn't even tag JulP. I thought for sure we would reach it. Target failures are only clear in hindsight however. For now this is a sign of strength; the last tough of a pivot ie good long entry was 6/1 and TLT has been above all long term and medium term pivots since then, although not one but two seemingly clear rejections from major resistance. And yet, zoomed right back up each time. If higher then Q3R1 high test, if above 2HR1 / YR2.
GLD
Weekly chart similar to TLT, not yet at major resistance and well above long term support.
Daily chart also did not tag AugP on the drop, with the last tough of pivot 6/7.
VIX
Weekly chart just fantastic confirmation on the major stock buys of the year - the big red bars dropping from the YP. Less likely to see major support though, as 2HS1 is 8.05.
Daily chart shows better chance of seeing Q3S1 but that is still very low at 9.99. Well under Q3P, so as long as VIX stays below SepP then stock bulls have the ball.
XIV
Wow, above YP! As it turns out already at 2HR1, so that is the next level to watch. Maintaining above YP on any stock pullback would be bullish.
Daily chart showing launch above YP on 7/29. RSI extreme reached so we'll see if it maintains and/or what happens at 2HR1.