Sum
I cannot remember a time when ALL of these safe havens seemed to be giving the green light for risk, then to be so wrong. Usually if there is any doubt asset managers won't mind parking some $ in bonds, but TLT did look like real selling with Q2R1 exact on the high, then break of YR1 & 1HR2, all with a daily RSI spike. GLD also looked like real reversal from levels. What really bugs me is the VIX, as that met all conditions for stock buy on Thursday. Oh well - it was a real surprise.
2 larger points worth mentioning:
Give the trend the benefit of the doubt when the asset class is above yearly, half-year and quarterly levels (ie TLT and GLD) both met this criteria for much of the year). If you get a good entry, hold some portion of the position as long as this condition is met.
Keep focus on status of above / below all / most pivots, rather than trying to short resistance levels or buy support. The surprises in an uptrend will often be higher, and the surprises in a downtrend will be lower. Maybe you would have locked in some gains on TLT or GLD/GDX longs with rejections from long term levels, but at least you would not be short!
TLT
What a difficult move. TLT really looked like level rejection with a clear push down from YR1 on 6/21. OK, volume was a bit on the lower side but not drastic. Anyway, weekly close back above the YR1 so that makes 3 weeks in a row with close above that level.
Again let's remind ourselves of a basic fact - when looking around for things above all pivots, TLT has had this status for much of 2016. If you lower the bar to above 3 / 4 pivots (not including weekly or daily here) then all days of 2016 except for 7 trading days. 6 of those 7 were 2 / 2. TLT will likely be above all pivots to open the second half, where stocks will almost have to be mixed.
GLD
Again what a tough move. That was real pro selling on 6/16 from Q2R1, 1HR3 and a full reversal bar on volume. Just a reason why I start with status above all pivots / below all and emphasize yearly, half-year and quarterly pivots, because twice GLD has come rocketing back after pullbacks that looked like the start of larger drops. Yet both times the only level to break was a monthly pivot.
VIX
The YP may test next week. Again Thursday looked like green light for stock longs with clear push down from the Q2P that closed under the previous day's low. Next day above the Q2P all day said trouble for real.
XIV
Like RUT / IWM, XIV has been more bearish since the 6/6 week. Below all pivots is more bearish for stocks, so the Q2P is in play until the changeover on 7/1.