Last week (check the tag): "... *usually* monthly pivots are not enough for a major top (SPY, DIA, IWM and NYA all near JunR1s then down last week). But a few other components of my Total market view are considering if we just saw a turn of more significance. I don't have a strong bias as to what will happen. Safe havens could soar and stocks fall further, or safe havens drop down as stocks bounce back. In recent weeks long USA stocks AND safe haven positions in TLT and GLD/GDX has been the way to go - all of these above all pivots as of various dates. Although if I had to chose a bias, I would say the former: safe havens up as stocks drop further."
And that's how it played out folks, with indexes lower and safe havens higher. If you had the idea to buy strength, then back in (or adding) TLT 5/31-6/1 with any spare cash, then GLD 6/3-6, GDX 6/3. You had reasons to reduce stock index per VIX & XIV warnings 6/10+ as all 5 USA indexes topped out on JunR1s. See previous total market view posts for additional points on sentiment, valuation and timing.
Sum
This week is a bit tougher to have bias with both TLT and GLD more extended, and 2 major indexes NDX 100 cash and NYA both just above YP levels that could easily try to bounce again. Bullish sentiment extremes on put-call and ISEE were worked off in a hurry, and AAII individual bears are back near levels just off February lows! Yet valuation and fundamentals should continue to cap the market, and this week some political event risk (Brexit) adds who knows factor with maybe a big gap on Friday.
I will side with the VIX - above Q2P means trouble, hold safe havens and possibly reduce stock index exposure further; below Q2P with safe havens fading means add risk back on. Best choice is the striking relative leader, the only index I track above all pivots, SOXX.
Pivots
Most points have been made in USA main index and Safe haven posts below. Let's state the basics though - no USA main index is above all pivots, and safe havens TLT and GLD are both well above all pivots. I don't have the time to discuss world indexes frequently, plus trading vehicles for NKY and DAX then have to consider currency, but these indexes are below all pivots!
NDX100 and NYA YPs are the big levels watch. While I won't declare "bear market" until market leaders INDU & SPX have clear rejections from long term levels, it would be more negative to have popular tech stocks and a broad institutional index back under YPs, yet of course bullish if they hold from here.
Other technicals
Last week I pointed out the monthly close high in SPX reached 5/2015 at 2107 adding to resistance. SPX has tried to lift above its monthly 20MA for the last 4 bars and hasn't gotten far. NDX and COMPQ are already breaking, though we won't have final values until the close. As we approach month and quarter end, I find it useful to check status and slope of the basic moving averages.
Sentiment
I noted 2 sentiment extremes just off the top - until entire market taken over by machines, this continues to happen. These have been worked off, although not yet close to seeing at least 2 on bearish extremes to help form a risk low.
Valuation and fundamentals
Same story, capping the market. SPX p/e after last week's drop is nearly the same, which means earnings estimates were revised lower. For now SPX 18x resistance 2086.
Timing
Dates for June that were listed at the end of May:
6/7-9; 6/8 decent turn in USA and some global indexes
6/13-14; looks like miss (while I will allow for +/-1, +/-2 really just isn't good enough)
6/28 (mild)
I'll add dates for July next week. Don't ask about backtesting, but we have had timing windows that were directly noted or published in advance on the stock low of the year 2/11-12 and the current high 6/8.