In the last couple of months I have been dedicating one post a week for bonds via TLT and another for GLD & GDX. I use VIX and other VIX vehicles a lot but didn't really post on these directly. Since I am moving to a more limited posting schedule I thought it would be helpful to have a post on these as a group like the USA main indexes.
Sum
TLT strong above all pivots.
GLD above 3 / 4 pivots, a shade below AprP (GDX above all on Thursday the clear buy did better on Fri).
VIX currently below all pivots but testing AprP. VIX and its cousins often get the market correct.
XIV below YP and HP, above Q2P and AprP, ie, mixed.
Bullish safe haven scenario would be TLT towards AprR2, GLD above AprP, VIX above AprP.
Bearish safe haven scenario would be TLT rejection from AprR1, GLD rejection of AprP and YR1 again, VIX below AprP with look of rejection.
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TLT high of 2016 is on the 1HR2 / YR1 combo. After dropping from that leve, 1HR1 came back to act as support. So the current range continues mostly between 1HR1 support and YR1 / 1HR2 resistance.
Any way you look at TLT it is quite a strong trend. It opened April above its Q2P and AprP and easy decision to jump back in with the look of support from near test of the AprP. After a 1 day drop from AprR1 it immediately came back and probably heading up to the AprR2 / YR1 / 1HR2 zone.
If you are a dedicated bond trader you might want to look at TYX TNX ZB ZN as well.
GLD is again moving above its YR1 but just a shade under 1HR1 resistance. Anything higher would look very bullish.
I am not sure of that low last week; back above YR1 bullish, just under AprP though.
Due to time constraints I will probably drop regular coverage of GDX, but wanted to point out that Thursdays decision to buy GDX over GLD was based on GDX being above YR1 *and* AprP, and that paid on Friday.
On VIX, the 2015 high was on YR3. I also think it is interesting that VIX had the market correct as its YP / 1HP combo held as resistance. However, it is very unlikely that we will see the YS1! :)
The clear drop from the YP on 2/12 helped confirm the stock buys, and VIX nearly all bullish from there except a brief bounce 2/22-24 and then 4/7 above the AprP. Watch the AprP from here. Dedicated traders may also wish to check VXN, VXD, RVX, VXEEM, etc.
VIX above AprP would be more bearish for USA stocks, but below the Q2P 19.70 is still in relatively safe zone. Any move above that would mean more serious trouble for the market and likely coincide with a break of some index Q2Ps as well.
The inverse VIX ETF XIV is pretty good too. Look at the 2014 high and 2015 low (both on yearly pivots). 2016 low quite near YS1 / 1HS1 combo too.
XIV D just above AprP and Q2P not far below. More bullish for stocks to stay above these levels.