Sentiment

Weekly series as long as time permits. Check the tag for prior versions. 

Sum
Put-call is going on the low end, both daily and weekly charts. But nothing else is close to a toppy area. Usually we would see at least 2 of these 4 readings at extremes for a major top. So upside may be more limited especially around the next option expiration week, but nothing else suggests a big top.

* * *

Daily put-call down near area that has been near lows since 2014 2H to now. 

Weekly put-call also getting down there now, though can go lower. Still, upside "should be" more limited perhaps especially the next option expiration week. 

 

ISEE
Oddly 3/22 and 3/23 were daily spike LOW readings ie too pessimistic! While 3/18 was the last higher reading, nothing extreme since 12/24/2015. I think we should see a high daily reading for a major top area. 

10MA 93% percentile, still bearish extreme.
20MA 97% percentile, bearish extreme.
50MA 94% percentile, bearish extreme. 

AAII managers
Up to 42% percentile, up from 52% last week. This was down to near extreme 88% in February. 

AAII individuals
Bulls only 27% which is 90% percentile going back to 2005. This is just not how markets top out!
Bears on the lower end 25% but that is 19% percentile. So very low bulls, not so many bears either. High neutral then. Is that a top? Probably not.
Bull bear spread reflects this with very middle of road 57% percentile.
8 week bull avg still bearish extreme 90% percentile!