On 1/7/2016 I wrote: "Is this a key low or is the bear for real? Bear for real below the 2016 YP at 4373." This was a simple statement but actually quite carefully considered as explained here.
Now some might say that didn't turn out, because SPX and INDU were down only -15% from 2015 high to 2016 low, and NDX about -18%. If you are using -20% then OK that didn't qualify. Although the weaker USA main indexes RTY and NYA did reach bear territory with -25% and -20% respectively.
Also consider by shifting conclusively bearish I emphasized the safe haven trades from there: TLT, GLD and perhaps some GDX. After 1/7, these had the chance for 11% upside in TLT, 19% upside in GLD, and 68% in GDX! Now you wouldn't have gotten these exactly because it is measuring a low made after 1/7 to the highs; but similarly, the stock indexes measure the drop from high to low.
Meanwhile after 1/6-7, SPX had about additional -9% down to the lows, INDU about same at -8.5%, and NDX a bigger drop after 1/7 (because that is when YP broke) at another -10% down. The more bearish vehicles as noted above were another -12% down on RTY and another -9.5% on NYA.
So despite SPX, NDX and INDU not reaching that 20% media headline number, this idea of playing the market more defensively worked quite well. Until 2/12 when oil bottomed on its YS1, INDU recovered its YS1 after a slight break (DIA and YM held) and RTY held YS2! I did recommend speculative buys on INDU and oil right on 2/12!
Since then I have recommended even more longs, but still wary of the rally with two quick short shuffles that were nixed the next day. Why? Because stock indexes were below 3 / 4 pivots and only recovered monthly levels, while still below yearly, half-year and quarterly pivots!
But now it may be time to shift tune. INDU / DIA / YM has been the pivot leader on the rally. This wasn't the case in the 2009-2015 bull market where it was the NDX. What I mean by this is SPX, NDX, and NYA all broke their YS1s, and RTY went all the way down to its YS2, but INDU broke YS1 fractionally as DIA & YM clearly held.
INDU was the first cash index to close above its FebP (fractionally on 2/17) with others still below, and likewise the first to close above a long term pivot on 3/4 above its 1HP, where the others hadn't done that yet. And really YM and DIA were the best tells last week, clearly holding major support before the big jump at the end of the week. On Friday both SPX and INDU leaped above all pivots on Friday, but with INDU the current leader the market call here is:
Bull alive and kicking above 17138 (the highest of the INDU pivots, the Q1P) and still more likely than bear with INDU above its YP at 17048.