Prior week: "SPX mostly below Q4P (but ESZ above, one of 4 varations), Tech set strong above all pivots with both futures holding OctP on daily close on the lows; INDU set also below Q4P yet holding OctS1; RUT set trying to hold Q4P on Friday's close (futures look better, cash and ETF fractional close above the level; NYA/VTI both below Q4P yet VTI not far from another attempt to clear."
Last week: SPX 1 day Q4P recovery then another move below and rejection; Tech less strong with slight break of OctP on 3 of 5 variations; INDU below Q4P and OctP; RUT also break of Q4P; NYA/VTI below Q4P as well.
What changed last week was that Tech partially broke, RUT/IWM broke, and SPY & VTI had recovery attempts that failed. These are all bearish developments. Keep in mind all long term trends are intact (ie above 2HP and YP). All medium term trends are weaker with leader QQQ still holding up the best (fractional break of OctP) and IWM now faring the worst (biggest drop under Q4P).
Sum
Markets threatening lower with 2nd clear rejection of Q4Ps during the past week on: SPX set, RUT set, and VTI. INDU set below Q4P although not much lower; Tech mostly below OctP, but futures still holding is the one bullish point. It is a fairly rare day in markets when multiple main indexes show clear rejections of quarterly, half-year or yearly pivots (ie not just monthly) with falling moving averages to boot.
2016 prior highs seeming to act as support could be interesting to watch along with the longer term levels like 2015 highs on SPX and INDU, and NDX 2000 top. Eyeball charts for 2016 prior highs on: SPY (June high), DIA (April), IWM (June), and VTI (June).
Charts
Cash index charts with long term pivots only
ETF chart with long & medium term pivots
Futures continuous "1" contract charts with pivots and MAs only for clarity of trend
Futures current "Z" contract charts with the works
SPX / SPY / ES1 / ESZ
SPX W - Interesting that the high and low look very similar, a few weeks of extension above the big level (YS1 / YR1) then the move the other way. Basically SPX continues drop from YR1 that was the 2nd rejection in October.
SPX D - Here is long term level on daily chart to show how many times this acted as resistance (my count 9 trading days).
SPY D - After the Q4P break on 10/11, SPY has chopped sideways mostly between Q4P as resistance and OctS1 green dots as support. The grey line is the June high which seems to be involved as support as well. This is also now the 2nd time we are seeing clear rejections from Q4P on this chart (10/14 and 10/26-27).
ES1 D - Note red bars under pivots and falling MAs on 9/23, 9/29, 10/11 mixed with falling and rising MA, 10/14 same, 10/27 all MAs falling or flat. Best setups often combination of clear pivot move and slope of MA. IE, 6/28 long, 7/5-6 longs, 8/4 hold, 10/24 could have tried long since above Q4P and D100 but obviously cut the next day.
ESZ D - This looks a bit better with low bang on OctS1 (again) and no breakdown of BB. Red line also this version YR1 holding as support. Still, check the selling around the D50MA early Oct and remember SPX YR1 also right there.
NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ1 / NQZ
Cash charts did not reach long term target areas.
QQQ slight break of OctP, although both futures charts still holding (so futures still keeps some bull hope alive).
Both futures charts did reach long term resistance on the highs (so there was at least something on that 10/24-25 top).
INDU / COMP / DIA / YM1 / YMZ
Both INDU & COMP below YR1, but minimal decline last week.
DIA clear Q4P resistance 9 of last 11 trading days but not significantly lower.
Both futures same, below Q4P but not much lower.
RUT / IWM / RJ1 / RJZ
RUT a thing of beauty with low and high of year bang on YS1 & YR1 respectively. YP test within reach! All charts similar here, OctS2 a bit lower, then YP / HP / Q4S1 combo which if reached will probably happen on RSI oversold.
NYA / VTI (different but both broad USA market indexes, and for these purposes count them together as '1' USA main index)
NYA did not reach long term resistance, but high on SepR1, lower high on Q3R1, then resistance on OctP, then down from there.
VTI high on YR1 and 2nd clear rejection of Q4P, with 3 MAs involved on Thursday (10, 20, 100).