Yesterday: "As long as VIX remains above its Q2P, path of least resistance is lower for stocks. But tomorrow is FOMC so it would be not unthinkable to have another dovish meeting and stock bounce."
And that's the way it played out, with a bounce into the FOMC but ultimately lower as VIX finished above its Q2P level of 19.70 as well.
Today on the SPX / SPY / ES set, SPX looks more negative while SPY and ES don't look too bad despite a close under the JunP. Sometimes you get crystal clear moves on major, minor and global indexes across the board confirmed by VIX or other safe havens and you know exactly what to do. Others like today are a bit unclear, so like most days using this method, the best answer might be to do nothing.
As far as I am concerned, last Friday 6/10 was a partial take profit or partial hedge day on longs from 5/19 and/or 5/24. I pointed this out in commentary as multiple indexes reached JunR1s with VIX soaring above JunP, with simultaneous sentiment extremes and valuation resistance.
But if you bought into TLT anytime from 5/19 to 6/1 with spare cash when holding the Q2P and/or above all pivots, despite 2 earlier minor frustrations in late March and early May, you are looking quite fine. And if you had any funds leftover, you could have jumped back in GLD/GDX above all pivots recently as well.
We'll see if we will get a clearer move on the SPX set tomorrow, but we've had a few cracks in the larger bullish view on this drop (fitting per several recent emails pointing out the possibility of a more significant top). Let's see what happens.
Lastly, the best performing risk asset right now: SOXX, completely above all pivots without even testing JunP. The worst: NKY cash, followed by IBB, both under all pivots from 6/2 and 6/10 respectively.
