2/21/2018

Though the pivotal momentum leaders are the same as yesterday - only things I track above all pivots are EWZ, RSX, KWEB and VIX - today was much more bearish for risk and especially USA indexes. 

QQQ, current USA main index leader, QR2 rejection; attempt and fail at recovering FebP
SPY QR1 rejection, D20MA and D50MA fail, FebS1 fail
DIA FebS1 fail, D20 and D50 fail
IWM D20 and D50 fail, also up more than 1% to finish back in negative territory YTD (red line on chart below)

XBI, also up 2% intraday but had significant pro selling to push it back under FebP and HR1

From the most recent Total market view: "If long, then it is time to exercise more caution via risk management, exposure levels, or willingness to re-enter short hedges. If this idea is right we are going to see more struggles around highs as pros start to distribute to lessen their exposure."

It's happening folks. People have gotten used to stocks going up and up. But pros are lightening up. The quarterly charts on USA main indexes are still ~6 weeks from close, but look as toppy now as 2009 Q1 bar looked like a low. 

NYA is a good institutional tell. As futures are lower as I type this will probably be testing QP tomorrow. If that breaks then the path of least resistance is lower. Remember - bonds are not cushioning this blow. 

SPY, QQQ, IWM and NYA below.

21 51 QQQ D.png
21 52 IWM D.png
21 53 NYA D.png