SPY at 2HR1 / AugR1 and no sign of any rejection yet. SPX may want to tag 2500 for option expiration week.
3 of 5 USA mains are testing pivot resistance levels so the question is blast through, pause and then up, pullback and then up, or simply rejection for a key high.
I would say TLT under its YP and GLD under YR1 argues for minimal damage to stocks. VIX and XIV are fully supportive of risk here.
Rather than jump on hedges or shorts I think the play is to look for what is changing pivot status out of the blue. Oil, mentioned on my twitter @thepivotalview on 9/1 with potential for upside surprise for several weeks, is moving nicely (as is XLE). CL1 contract has been above all pivots a handful of times this year and has been disappointing for longs; however, this is the third time this quarter up near its D200MA and that could turn into support. On the ETF view, USO cleared 2HP fractionally today which is the second time since July that USO is showing any long term strength; and this occurred despite $DXY rally.
I've been "screaming bearish" $DXY since 5/16, and it has been below its monthly pivot every trading day since then. But a false break and rebound above the 2016 low of 91.92 has gotten a bounce going which is also impacting GLD and global indexes. I'm not sure how far this bounce goes, but there is potential to see weekly 10MA currently 93.13 or D50MA 93.45 if (IF) it can clear D20 and the SepP at 92.77. Since EURUSD is dropping from YR2, i think DXY move can go a bit further than other bounces the last few months.
Returning to the safe haven theme - TLT below YP "should be" bullish for stocks, and convincing rejection of YR1 on GLD also points to strength on risk assets. However, 3 of 5 USA mains are already at resistance and portfolio is already in tech. IYF / XLF is a potential add along with USO (if XLF rallies above its SepP; IYF already above).
SPY, TLT, GLD, USO, XLF, XIV below.
