9/11/2017

On Friday, every safe haven that I track other than VIX indicated caution for risk assets, and today it turned out they were wrong. I rank this among days like pre-Brexit when "the smart money" is truly surprised by the market.

But today, all 5 USA main indexes back above all pivots, and this time XIV confirmed the VIX move by also moving above all pivots (fractionally but still). In addition, monthly charts had seemed to be on the way to reversal bars for the 5 USA main indexes, yet today 4 of 5 (excepting QQQ) went back to positive for the month. 

For a pivotal momentum strategy, it was a mixed day with evaporated gains in GLD, GDX and TLT if in that; while global favorites FXI, KWEB, EEM, INDA, and USA tech via QQQ & SMH, all bounced back.

GLD fell back under YR1, and GDX under 2HR1. Exits are trickier than entries. I don't like long term level rejections though sometimes after a brief drop the market comes back. This is why I also factor in higher timeframe charts and other technicals. One could be trimming both based on the move today; or give more room by holding a portion above all pivots and/or above rising moving average (for example, holding until 2 consecutive closes below a 10MA). Based on the weekly charts I'd say err on the side of taking gains with any additional weakness below GLD YR1.

SPY, GLD, XIV below.

11 2 GLD D.png
11 3 XIV D.png