Stage was set for a clear bearish move - and it i just didn't happen. VIX put in a massive rejection of 2HP / Q3P, and XIV held AugP to remain above all pivots.

However, SPX is still stuck on its Q3R1 - SPY looked like it cleared fractionally, but SPX stopped bang on level and futures under too. QQQ also on Q3R1. So these are levels to watch Thursday. On the plus side, IWM held 2HP (barely but still) and NYA held YR1 as support.

Not sure which way this goes - I thought stage set for real deal VIX launch but instead high near pivots and down most of the day. Cash can be a position too. GLD (originally mentioned as rec when doing detailed positioning posts 7/11, still doing very well.

I think today's market is very much reminiscent of October 2014 Ebola drop. In hindsight it is easy to wonder what were people so worked up about for a fast 10% drop. Um, economy tanking from a dreaded incurable disease, that's what. Very similar now. After a huge rally, with VIX and average true range at historic / multi year lows, the market may need a scare to reset. How far that drops the indexes, not sure. I'd prefer to see something similar, but cannot fall in love with bear side when 4 of 5 indexes are above all pivots, and even SPY hanging around Q3R1 for weeks without going higher cannot muster a decent rejection.

SPY, SPX, VIX and XIV below.

PS: What is the risk of the two craziest leaders of the 21st century having a nuclear pissing contest? Seems like it should be more than a few %s for SPX.