I've had a string of correct Total market views - most recently from shifting bullish early in July loading up on tech and global indexes, and then back to defensive towards the end of the month including a still pretty good trade in UVXY.
But my bearish bias of the 8/13 Total market view is so far very wrong. Gains lost on the UVXY, though cutting near open was still 20%+ from 8/4 closing price.
As usual let's run through the +s and -s to assess correct positioning.
+s
SPY, QQQ, DIA and VTI back above all pivots.
XIV held 2HP and bounce back above Q3P.
TLT YP semi-rejection.
GLD under Q3R1.
-s / ?s
DIA back to 2HR1, major resistance.
SPY & QQQ back to Q3R1s, levels to watch.
NYA back to YR1, IWM back to 2HP, levels to watch.
VIX above 2HP / Q3P, 12.23, did not confirm rally yet.
So far after hours pointing to bulls. With VIX above 2HP, risk could return anytime. But given pivotal strength of USA main indexes, and safe haven TLT and GLD failure (at YP and Q3R1 respectively), right to be more long. Probably not fully or leveraged long yet.
Regarding positioning, the global indexes looked less zippy today, likely due to $DXY strength. Simple criteria - what is above all pivots and MAs (and not yet overbought)?
SPY still resistance at falling 10 & 20MAs, and Q3R1
QQQ above flatish 10 & 20MAs, still facing Q3R1 though
DIA on 10MA, above rising 20MA, but bang on 2HR1 and not as much gain today
IWM below 2HP, forget it
VTI not really my trading vehicle, though i do like to watch it for market breadth
SMH above all pivots and MAs, not at resistance
IYF / XLF fractionally above AugPs and stuck near 20MAs; not best but could consider adding
XBI under D50MA and AugP, forget it
Anyway, I went with QQQ and SMH longs and may add further if VIX confirms tomorrow. Also, USO back under all pivots already, short candidate.
N Korea could change risk in a hurry so holding longs with VIX above the 2HP means acknowledging major risk. Yet with stocks in uptrends, not taking a jump back above all pivots for 4 of 5 USA main indexes seems wrong as well. If bombs drop, GLD and TLT likely to rally so no hurry to get rid of those still profitable positions. SPY may not drop as much as people think in a war; it is the China trade issue that matters here.
SPY, QQQ, SMH, USO, VIX, XIV below.
