7/5/2017

A lot more +s than -s today:

QQQ recaptured Q3P
SPY held JulP - could have broken, but didn't
VTI held JulP - could have broken, but didn't
XIV held JulP - you get the idea
VIX JulP rejection - could have cleared, but didn't

TLT stayed under Q3P - could have cleared, but didn't
GLD stayed under 2HP - etc

Last daily comment said holding USO above the JulP so that was taken out. Also ready to cut SMH short. Both great mean reversion trades for the end of 2H and quick counter-trend moves that were among the biggest moves in markets since 6/26. FXI was holding based on YR1, and that cleared somewhat in addition to closing slightly above its JulP. Portfolio 100%. INDA looking great and adding 2 on that per recent Total market view. 

So now the question, 100% (which would mean trimming 2 SPY) or leverage? I am option for leverage with all safe havens saying green light for risk. This could change tomorrow but for now +2 INDA for 120% net.

If QQQ looks more convincing above Q3P could further add on that or rotate out of some of the SPY. That said the pure technical leaders on USA mains are now DIA and IWM, above all pivots and above all MAs, then XLF and XBI for the sector leaders. 

Bullish from here is the safe havens staying below their respective pivots (and XIV above), with QQQ lifting off above the Q3P and SMH recapturing Q3P as well. Bearish would be TLT and GLD above Q3P and 2HP respectively, and XIV below JulP with QQQ fading and others that held today breaking down. We'll see what happens but cost will be low even if bearish version plays out, so comfortable taking more risk. 

ps - if GLD rallies above its 2HP, GDX could be interesting play off its YP.

SPY, QQQ, INDA, VIX, XIV, TLT, GLD and GDX below.

5 4 VIX D.png