Inconclusive day with a lot of mixed signals.

+s
QQQ cleared Q3R1, but weakened after hours
NYA still holding YR1 as support
XIV cleared YR3 (!)
TLT JulP rejection

-s
DIA & IWM continued to drift under JulR1s

?s
SPY & VTI under Q3R1s but pause, no rejection.
GLD JulP resistance, but above YP, 2HP and Q3P

So this is a bit more in the + column although there are still ingredients for a top. But if the markets wanted to top here, or at least have a tradable down move, XIV should have stayed under YR3 and it cleared. Also, TLT could have rallied further but didn't. So, bulls benefit of the doubt.

As noted in the recent Total market view, some sentiment readings have become quite bullish. This definitely increases the risk of a shakeout. On the other hand, August 2015 and seasonals seem quite in mind in a lot of commentary, and corrections don't tend to happen when a lot of people are expecting them. How can these both resolve? A lot of sideways. Or a minor one day bear wonder and recovery.

For now, hedging out 2 SPYs with very low cost position, valid with SPY below the Q3R1. Might think about a very counter-trend UVXY if XIV fades below YR3 or tags 2HR1. Lastly, if GLD weaker short on GDX could work too.

SPY and XIV below.