Interesting tests of Q3R1s on several USA mains: SPY, QQQ, and VTI/NYA (VTI & NYA are different indexes, but I count them together as broad USA benchmarks). Sentiment is increasingly a factor, with the 3rd very high ISEE reading in just over a week; and a very different AAII reading as well. Safe havens continue showing strength, with TLT threatening XLF especially, though GLD could have been stronger with the very weak $DXY. Add timing with key date 7/21 (something these are +/- 1), and there are ingredients for a top here.
That said, so far the levels do not look like rejection, and VIX and XIV still saying all clear.
Portfolio has 10 stock longs and 2 GLD longs (counting those as safe havens / hedges) so 80% net. A reduction in stocks or other hedge is worth considering. But given look of move so far, I think this is premature. This could easily change tomorrow. Stay tuned. Probably XLF first to cut if any weakness tomorrow along with TLT strength.
SPY, SPX and ESU below, plus XIV. Note the difference in conclusions.
SPY fractionally above Q3R1 level, bullish, but still under JulR2;
SPX under both, more threatening though does not look like reversal;
ESU, looks like reversal about to hit.
We'll see what happens.
PS - if XIV tags YR3 or fades under Q3R1, I may buy puts.