7/18/2017

When levels hold that could have broken, that is bullish when we're looking at risk assets. Today, SPY, DIA (fractionally), QQQ (solidly) and VTI all held JulR1 as support. Several reasons to stay bullish.

That said, I don't like to see strength in safe havens TLT (above Q3P and back above D50MA) and another big up day for GLD. I can say this while being long GLD, because portfolio is fully long (100%) risk assets and only 20% long GLD. More directly TLT strength is jeopardizing the XLF positions which have not participated in recent stock rally, with their high on 7/3 and drifting lower from there. Due to congestion in TLT, I am willing to give this a bit more time before changing out. If TLT dropped, XLF would likely push to highs in a hurry. 

INDA also fell a bit from YR2 but the breakout above May and June highs looks for real and willing to let this play out, considering INDA among market leaders this year. (I know, Greece, Turkey, Poland, etc are above INDA in return, but these were extremely beat up coming into 2017; they are functioning as this year's EWZ and RSX). The base indexes on India stocks, NIFTY and SENSEX, are just off new all time highs. 

Still considering some hedging play but only after sure that other indexes are topping. Given strength in USA mains, I think an additional hedge would be premature though certainly glad to have played GLD despite my doubts. Hindsight always 20/20 but no need for reluctance when $DXY keeps dropping like a rock - plunged through YS1 without any attempt at bounce.

SPY, INDA, TLT, GLD, DXY below. 

18 2 TLT D.png
18 3 GLD D.png
18 4 DXY D.png