7/10/2017

Mixed signals today. If risk assets hold support that could have broken, that's bullish. Conversely, when resistance holds that could have cleared, that's a bit bearish. With that in mind:

SPY above YP, 2HP, Q3P; did not quite clear JulP (OK, SPY looks fractionally above but SPX cash, ESU current and ES1 continuous all did not)
QQQ above YP, 2HP and Q3P; did not clear JulP
VTI above YP, 2HP and Q3P; did not clear JulP
(no change to DIA, above all pivots)

So all of these are decent - above the more important pivots - just could have been a little stronger. Maybe JulP will clear tomorrow, or maybe markets will go down. No real edge, though sentiment still in favor of the bulls. Also, QQQ cleared YR2 that could have been resistance so that is a definite point in the bull column. 

IWM fell back under JulP, yet another disappointment. This presents a question in positioning - once again better to go all tech. In fact, IWM closest of all USA mains to turn into a real short (if below Q3P & 2HP - not yet).

When scanning positions this morning, was regretting being out of EEM but then saw INDA - nice! But right now EEM is back above all pivots, and it is hard to find indexes that meet this criteria, at least today. IWM qualified last week, but not now. If markets go a little higher Tuesday there will be plenty of choices: SPY, (DIA already there), more QQQ, SMH, KWEB... as for today, switching out IWM for EEM again. 

Also keeping an eye on GLD & GDX, both near YPs. In real risk on scenario GLD should be breaking down. 

SPY, SPX, QQQ, IWM, SMH, INDA, EEM, XIV, GLD, GDX below.

10 1 SPY D.png
10 3 QQQ D.png
10 10 SMH D.png
10 5 INDA D.png
10 7 XIV D.png