Not much change to pivot status on the USA main indexes and safe havens other than GLD, which broke its JunP after reclaiming status of above all pivots for 1 day. That said, lower high in place on the momentum QQQ and SMH invites more selling.

In addition, special 1 day timing cycle indicates higher than usual odds of a market smash on Tuesday. What qualifies as smash? Let's say QQQ -1%.

On the bullish side, DIA still holding YR1 as support for the 4th consecutive test, and VTI back above YR1 for the 2nd consecutive day as well. Also, XIV showing absolutely no signs of trouble. VIX is back to Q2S1 which is an interesting level to watch for Tuesday.

Portfolio is up to 90% long with a speculative buy on USO near the YS1. This is totally counter-trend move - ie below all pivots - but in certain very rare circumstances these setups offer good risk-reward. I haven't done too many of these but mentioned in an oil post on the blog over the weekend. Risk is limited to daily close below the YS1.

To me the bond market is screaming, and the last few weeks I am in disbelief that stock charts are holding up so well with TLT at multi-month highs (ie TYX & TNX at multi-month lows). Stock bulls have won but jeez I would like to see that timing cycle play out tomorrow as indicated. For this reason I will go out on a limb and issue speculative short on SMH based on rejections of 1HR3, Q2R2, and D20MA failure. This keeps portfolio at 80% net long. Keep in mind, though, that the far easier money was made buying QQQ, KWEB and SMH (instead of IWM and SPY) on the 4/20+ low areas.

SPY, QQQ, SMH, USO, TLT and VIX below.