The market could have dropped more today but didn't. Dow traded above YR1 for the second day. VTI also held its YR1 as support. VIX stopped cold on a test of JunP and fell from there. All in all, bears could have turned the tables on the trend with a clear rejection of Dow YR1 with tech leading lower and VIX jumping above pivots, but that didn't happen. If a bearish event could have happened but didn't, that's bullish.

QQQ is below its JunP at the lower daily BB. This is only the 2nd touch of the band since the election. Previously I have cut on weakness too soon, so will hold this another day. Same for KWEB.

But the weekly charts to me look like setting up for stock tops.

Keep an eye on bonds: TLT, TNX and TYX all at YP / 1HP combos. D200MAs have cleared for TLT and broken for the yield charts. If the YPs go in direction of bonds (ie TLT above YP, TNX and TYX below YPs) then I think stocks will be much more at risk.

In addition, DXY low on 1HS1 exact pressures global indexes. Portfolio is fully long but still has 1 QQQ, 1 KWEB and 2 EEM. Dollar strength along with momentum re-balancing puts all the non SPY positions at risk for further declines.

I may shift gears soon. Despite today's bullish action, I'm still skeptical. Two of the smartest people in the room, Jeffrey Gundach and JPM's head quant Marko Kolanovic, have both sounded the alarm for risk this week. I tend to agree. But until I see pivot level rejections and VIX / XIV confirming, better to hold.

SPY, DIA, TLT and VIX below.